Gaza ceasefire looks doomed

In four days’ time, Israel and Hamas are supposed to move to phase two of the Gaza ceasefire deal.

So what? That seems a million miles away. Negotiations over the terms of phase two were due to begin three weeks ago, but haven’t started.

Phase two is supposed to herald a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a permanent ceasefire and the return of all remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds more Palestinian prisoners. As it stands, both sides remain at loggerheads.

• Israel says it’s committed to returning all the hostages, but that it won’t completely withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is dismantled and its leadership exiled from Gaza.
• Hamas says it won’t hand over the last hostages – its final leverage – until Israel’s withdrawal from the Strip is complete and international mediators guarantee a permanent ceasefire.

The prognosis. Even Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy credited with securing the deal, acknowledged that it’s “hard to square that circle”. Aaron David Miller, former Middle East negotiator for the US State department, believes it’s “almost impossible” that the deal will continue into phase two. Late last week Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, who is known to leak statements to the press as a “senior Israeli official”, told Israel’s Channel 14 that “there will be no second phase”.

However, Miller notes another possibility: an extension of phase one, in which Hamas continues to release hostages in exchange for Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners and funneling more humanitarian aid into the Strip.

The stakes. Bruised and isolated from Israel’s 15-month onslaught, Hamas is ill-equipped for a return to fighting and eager to secure the release of more prisoners including senior Palestinian leaders facing life-sentences. In a bid to keep the deal alive, Hamas’s Gaza Chief has offered to release all remaining Israeli hostages in a single handover rather than in stages if the deal progresses to phase two. Today

• 61 hostages remain in Gaza, over half of whom Israel says are dead, and
• hundreds of Palestinian prisoners are still set for release.

The BN factor. The Israeli public overwhelmingly supports persisting with the deal. But for Netanyahu, anything other than a return to fighting could lead to the collapse of his governing coalition – which in turn could leave him defenceless against pending corruption charges and an independent inquiry into the government’s failures leading up to October 7.

The DT factor. In desperation, a number of Israeli hostage families have released video appeals begging the US President, rather than their own Prime Minister, to save their loved ones. As for Trump, he has said he is fine with whatever decision Netanyahu makes, whether to continue with the deal or return to war. He has also stopped talking about taking over Gaza, expressing openness to ideas from Arab leaders.

Finger pointing. For now, it’s likely that both sides will seek to blame the other for the deal not proceeding. On Saturday, after six Israeli hostages were released, Netanyahu announced that he would delay the release of the corresponding 602 Palestinian prisoners until Hamas ended its “demeaning” hostage release ceremonies.

What’s more… Violence is already ticking up. Last week three bombs exploded on public buses near Tel Aviv. Israel’s far right was quick to say the ceasefire deal had emboldened Palestinian militants.