Taiwan is in China’s crosshairs

China is conducting large-scale military exercises around Taiwan. Earlier this month it unveiled new bridge-barges that could help China launch an amphibious landing, and last week Taiwanese prosecutors charged a Chinese ship captain with cutting undersea cables.

So what? Tensions across the Taiwan Strait are escalating. It’s true we have been here before. But with Donald Trump in the White House, it’s different. His “America first” mantra, coupled with his brief suspension of military aid to Ukraine this year, has prompted many Taiwanese to worry that Washington might abandon Taiwan to the mercy of China.

Such concerns are sharpened by

• Trump’s opacity on whether Washington would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. “I never comment on that,” he said last month when asked if it was his policy that China will never take Taiwan by force.
• China’s burgeoning military prowess.
• China’s exasperation with Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te, who it called a “separatist” and a “parasite” this month. China also released a series of cartoons showing Lai as a bug held by chopsticks being grilled over a fire, “courting ultimate destruction”.

In the meantime, China’s pressure on Taiwan is intensifying.

Shades of grey. China is deploying a series of “grey zone” strategies – defined as tactics that fall somewhere between war and peace – in an attempt to weaken Taiwan’s resistance over time partly by convincing Taipei that China’s military superiority is overwhelming.

The Global Times, an official Chinese newspaper, left no doubt this month what the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait were intended to signal.

“For the Lai Ching-te authorities and ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces, the PLA is always on a high level of combat readiness, like a sharp sword or a heavy hammer over their heads,” the newspaper quoted a Chinese analyst as saying.

Next gen landing craft. Perhaps more ominous for the longer term was the unveiling of new barge-bridge technologies. These have the potential to overcome one of the biggest challenges inherent in any military assault on Taiwan – completing amphibious landings for large numbers of troops.

Much of Taiwan’s coastline is steep and rocky, making it difficult for troops to swarm ashore. But the barge bridges, called “Shuiqiao”, can stand in the shallows and use extendable ramps to allow troops to march off the bridges onto shore.

Cut cables. The captain of the Chinese-crewed cargo ship, the Hong Tai 58, is suspected of using his anchor to cut an undersea cable connecting Taiwan to its Penghu islands – the fifth sea cable malfunction reported by Taiwan this year.

The US connection. Would the US under Trump leave Taiwan to its fate against China’s stronger military forces? Unclear. But it’s significant that the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires the US to supply Taipei with defensive weapons, stops short of committing Washington to dispatch US troops to defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Magic mountain. In addition, plans by TSMC, maker of the world’s most advanced computer chips, to invest a total of $165 billion in building out manufacturing capacity in the US risks diluting the strategic value that Taiwan currently has as America’s main source of cutting-edge semiconductors.

What’s more… In Taiwan, TSMC is widely known as the “magic mountain that protects the nation” because it is believed that the US would have to defend Taiwan in order to safeguard its supply of advanced chips. But with the construction of TSMC’s new plant in Phoenix, Arizona, it is clear that the “magic mountain” is being slowly hollowed out.

Photo credit: @Defence_IDA/X