Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC is the tip of an iceberg

Last week, Viktor Orbán announced Hungary’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court.

So what? Timing is everything. The Hungarian president also welcomed Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu to Budapest even though the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for him. The pair discussed the court in a three-way phone call with Donald Trump. Then on Monday, Netanyahu was welcomed at the White House.

Rules? What rules? This is not just about kindred leaders seeking allies. It’s about populist governments asserting power over laws abroad as they are at home. Hungary will be the first EU state to withdraw from the court, but it is not the only country probing the limits of a fragile global justice system.

• Germany, Belgium and France – all ICC members – have ruled out arresting Netanyahu.
• Italy bypassed an ICC arrest warrant and returned an alleged Libyan war criminal to Tripoli in January.
• Mongolia welcomed Russia’s Vladimir Putin last September even though an ICC warrant had been issued for his arrest for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

Orbanter. Hungary’s leader has long defied international institutions and civil liberties at home. He has described the ICC as “a political forum” and called fellow European leaders “warmongers” while consistently opposing any efforts to step up military aid to Ukraine and progress the country’s application to become an EU member.

Trump, meanwhile, has published an executive order imposing harsh economic sanctions and travel bans on ICC staff.

Exception, not the rule. Last month, the ICC notched a rare victory when former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and brought to The Hague. He is accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity during the “war on drugs” that he oversaw as president and Davao mayor. These alleged crimes include torture, rape and the murder of up to 30,000 civilians.

Duterte’s arrest matters. He is the only detainee at Scheveningen prison accused of crimes committed while a democratically elected leader, and his arrest went ahead despite Duterte withdrawing the Philippines from the court as soon as its investigations began.

But it was a lucky exception driven by political winds in the Philippines.

• In 2022 Duterte’s daughter Sara ran as vice president alongside Ferdinand Marcos Jr. They won but their alliance has since collapsed, with Sara Duterte impeached after threatening to assassinate President Marcos.
• This led Marcos to cooperate with the ICC and arrest Sara’s father ahead of mid-term elections next month.

Justice constrained:

• The ICC does not have enforcement powers and depends on state cooperation for arrests – since its inception in 2002, ICC judges have issued 60 arrest warrants but only 21 people have been detained and appeared before the court in The Hague.
• It primarily has jurisdiction over countries that have ratified the Rome Statute.
• Its chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, is under investigation for alleged sexual misconduct.

Even in this weakened state, the ICC’s writ can run – as Duterte’s arrest shows. As he awaits trial he will share a prison with Hashim Thaçi, the former president of Kosovo accused of human organ trafficking, and Ratko Mladić, the army leader responsible for the Sarajevo siege that killed more than 10,000 people.

What’s more… Wars are on the rise. The world’s conflict zones have increased in area by two-thirds in the past three years. As a legal authority, the ICC is needed more than ever.