North Korea’s war in Europe: Kim and Putin try to reshape the world order

Talks between diplomats in London aimed at securing a ceasefire in Ukraine were downgraded yesterday after Donald Trump once again blamed Kyiv for the war and Marco Rubio, his secretary of state, opted to travel to Moscow instead.

So what? The war continues. Not just for Ukrainians and Russians, but North Koreans too. Over the past seven months, Kim Jong-un has reportedly sent at least 11,000 soldiers to the Russian region of Kursk.

• This is the first time North Koreans are known to have fought in a war in more than 70 years.
• It marks a geopolitical turning point in Europe’s largest conflict since the 1940s.
• It’s evidence of a partnership between two dictators trying to reshape the global order.

Who are the fighters? In January, Ukraine’s President Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces had taken two North Korean soldiers as prisoners of war. In interviews with South Korean intelligence services and journalists recounted to Tortoise, the soldiers revealed that they

• were operatives from Pyongyang’s Reconnaissance General Bureau, the country’s elite military intelligence unit;
• were told initially they were travelling abroad for training; and
• subsequently believed they were fighting against South Korean soldiers.

The soldiers also said they had been told to kill themselves rather than be taken alive.

Not mercenaries. Military service is mandatory for North Korean men, as well as some women, and can last up to 12 years. Seonghyeon Ryu, a defector who served seven years in the military, told Tortoise he slept as little as two hours per night, spent most of his time labouring instead of training, and said North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia were “cannon fodder”.

Is it a bird? Initial reports from Ukrainian soldiers and South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said the troops appeared well-organised and athletic but had little knowledge of modern warfare, particularly advanced military technology. Pasi Paroinen, an Osint analyst, said although the North Koreans appear to have gained experience since they were first deployed in October, they have suffered “hideously heavy casualties”.

Munitions, munitions, munitions. In 2022 US intelligence revealed that Russia was buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea. Jennifer Jun, a satellite specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said available imagery suggests munitions continue to be traded frequently via rail and by maritime routes. Evidence on the ground in Ukraine confirms Russia’s use of North Korean arms.

Seeing a friend. Neither party has confirmed this trade agreement nor the presence of North Korean soldiers in Kursk, but Kim Jong-un travelled to Russia in 2023 by armoured train for a meeting widely believed to relate to arms deals, and may visit again next month. Putin visited North Korea for the first time in more than two decades last June.

What’s in it for Kim? More than $20 billion, according to one South Korean think tank. As well as the money, it’s about access to weapons technology and less dependence on China.

More importantly, the operation in Kursk will inform future military training and mean North Korea has weapons that have been tested on the battlefield. For a closed-off and heavily sanctioned country regularly threatening its neighbours, that is invaluable.

And Putin? With the help of North Korean soldiers and weapons, Russia has reclaimed most of the territory it lost last summer in Kursk while fighting on multiple fronts within Ukraine.

Quid pro no. But John Foreman, the UK’s defence attaché to Moscow until 2022, said turning to the hermit kingdom holds no long-term economic benefit for Russia. North Korea might get “thrown under the bus” for a deal that prioritises relations between Washington and Moscow.

What’s more… So might Ukraine. Trump accused Zelensky yesterday of “harming” the peace process by refusing to recognise Russia’s occupation of Crimea, part of a US-led proposal that favours Putin’s terms for a deal. For those on the ground, peace remains an abstraction.

Further listening: North Korea’s war in Europe