Turkish protesters are in a vocal fight for democracy

Hundreds of thousands of people attended an opposition rally in Istanbul on Saturday to protest the arrest of its mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. They are expected to do the same this weekend. But many demonstrators are making bigger demands.

So what? They are worried about democracy under President Erdoğan, who after ruling Turkey for more than two decades is now tipping his country towards autocracy. But he is being met with stiff resistance. Erdoğan is facing the biggest backlash to his rule in years.

• These are the largest anti-government protests since the 2013 Gezi Park uprising.
• Despite a ban on public demonstrations, people have taken to the streets beyond Istanbul and into Erdoğan’s heartland around Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
• Turkish security forces have detained nearly 2,000 people and jailed large numbers of students in a failed attempt to quash the protests.

Where Erdoğan is not feeling the pressure is outside Turkey. In other circumstances, the repression of democratic opposition would cause consternation among western powers. But so far, reactions from the international community have been limited to ticking Erdoğan off verbally.

It’s the geography, stupid. For many centuries, Turkey has benefited from being a gateway to every compass point on the world map. Erdoğan has leveraged this well in recent years, maintaining good relations with Ukraine and Russia, playing an important role in Israel and Syria, and keeping peace with both sides of the increasingly fractured European-US alliance.

• Europe will likely need Turkish troops for a future Ukraine ‘reassurance’ force, while the EU recently named Turkey as a key partner in its new defence white paper.
• Last week Trump said the country was a “good place” with a “good leader”.
• Opposition leader Özgür Özel condemned Europeans that “play democracy at home while supporting autocracy in Turkey”.

The prodigal son. İmamoğlu is a popular figure, elected twice as mayor of Turkey’s largest city in 2019 after Erdoğan’s party demanded a re-run of his first victory. Since then a political ban and government attempts to stymie his initiatives in Istanbul have only added to his appeal.

Erdoğan’s nemesis. İmamoğlu and Erdoğan both have roots in the Black Sea, and have built political brands fuelled by their charisma and love of football. İmamoğlu is seen as the only person capable of beating the president, with an election expected within the next three years.

But now he is behind bars. Three days before İmamoğlu was due to be officially nominated as his party’s presidential candidate, hundreds of police showed up at his door. The Istanbul mayor is accused of a host of corruption charges. Prosecutors have sought to portray a grand scheme in which he sits at the top of a crime ring involving more than 100 people.

Evidence please. İmamoğlu denies the charges, which the opposition says are politicised. The government says the evidence is secret and the judiciary should be left to investigate. İmamoğlu is in a maximum security facility on the edge of the city he has governed for six years.

Say nothing. People gathered outside Istanbul’s city hall on the day İmamoğlu was detained. Özel rallied crowds every night before declaring an end to protests at that location, saying the demonstrations should become weekly. But protesters may not follow his lead.

Long live the king? Erdoğan has been characteristically quick to condemn the demonstrations, calling them “street terrorism” and “a movement of violence”. In the eyes of Erdoğan and the pro-government media sphere he commands, the protesters are vandals looking to desecrate public property and curse the president’s name.

Looking forward:

• Turkish authorities have tried to bring calm by extending the Eid al-Fitr public holiday, in the hope demonstrators will leave Istanbul and other cities.
• Some protesters say this won’t work and are focused on plans to ratchet up boycotts of companies close to Erdoğan. They are even considering a general strike.
• İmamoğlu has criticised the international community for its warm relations with Erdoğan, with the jailed mayor saying democracy “cannot survive in silence”.

What’s more… The only people currently filling that silence are protesters. But with western pressure limited or non-existent, Erdoğan will have no qualms about taking aggressive measures to maintain order. Right now it is what remains of Turkish democracy, not the president’s rule, that is in the most acute danger.