Gaza’s ceasefire is back on track – for now

This week Benjamin Netanyahu said if Hamas didn’t “return our hostages” by Saturday at noon, Israel would return to “intense fighting” in the Gaza Strip.

So what? Hamas has heeded the call. Today it confirmed it would release three hostages as initially agreed. This came after three statements this week that sowed doubts that the Gaza ceasefire would hold.

Netanyahu’s was the third, and followed

• Hamas announcing it would delay the handover of the three hostages due to be released; and
• Donald Trump saying “all hell is going to break out” if they’re not all freed that day.

How the deal got back on track. On Monday, Hamas said the door remained open to proceed as planned if Israel “complies and compensates for the past weeks” – a reference to alleged Israeli violations of the agreement since the ceasefire began. These include

• delaying the return of displaced residents to the north of the Strip;
• continuing to attack Palestinians, with at least 92 reportedly killed by Israeli forces;
• barring the exit of patients authorised to leave Gaza for medical treatment; and
• blocking the entry of humanitarian aid, including hundreds of thousands of tents and temporary shelters intended for Gaza’s displaced.

On Wednesday, for the first time since the ceasefire came into effect on 19 January, Israel sent tents, shelters and aid trucks into Gaza as stipulated in the terms of the agreement.

Reality check. The ceasefire may have been given just a temporary reprieve. Hamas is freeing three and not all 76 hostages on Saturday, so Trump has not got what he demanded. And Netanyahu’s own remarks are unclear on how many hostages he’d be satisfied with being released on Saturday to prevent a return to fighting.

Prelude to war. Both sides are making sure they’re ready if the deal does collapse.

• Israel has cancelled soldiers’ leave and called up reservists.
• Hamas has reportedly ordered its operatives to disconnect their mobile phones to evade Israeli surveillance.

At home, Netanyahu faces competing pressures on how to proceed.

• The government. Trump’s proposal to resettle Palestinians and turn Gaza into a “riviera of the Middle East” has emboldened members of Netanyahu’s coalition who want the war to resume and for Palestinians to be forced out of the Strip.
• The citizens. Last weekend’s images of emaciated Israeli hostages, including Eli Sharabi, who did not know his wife and daughters had been killed on October 7, have renewed calls from hostage families to keep focused on the current deal as what could be their last hope of seeing their loved ones again.

What will be lost. The deal still has a long way to run. If it breaks now, it will break before

• 76 hostages (dead and alive) are released;
• thousands of Palestinian prisoners are freed;
• Israeli troops withdraw in full from Gaza; and
• a major reconstruction plan is set out for the Strip.

View from the neighbours. Trump believes Gaza’s reconstruction should now rely on Egypt and Jordan taking in the Strip’s 2.3 million residents. Arab leaders have made clear that, despite threats to withdraw US aid, they will not be willing partners in forced displacement.

Meanwhile, Egypt is working on a “comprehensive vision” for Gaza’s reconstruction that would allow Palestinians to remain on their land. President Sisi is refusing to meet with Trump until the US leader’s Gaza plan is taken off the table.

What’s more... Few are paying attention to the West Bank, where an Israeli military operation inside refugee camps has forced 40,000 Palestinians from their homes.

This article first appeared online and in our newsletter, The Daily Sensemaker, at 7am. It was updated at 12.30pm to account for the morning’s developments.