How October 7 changed the world

Israel’s technological prowess was on full display last week. With modest US assistance, it intercepted the vast majority of the 180 ballistic missiles fired at it by Iran.

So what? On the same day, two Palestinian gunmen from the West Bank shot and killed seven people in Tel Aviv. Israel can silence missiles and rockets. But until it finds a way of addressing Palestinian grievances its people are unlikely ever to enjoy true peace.

In the region. A year of slaughter and destruction since last October 7 has

• crippled but not eliminated Hamas and Hezbollah;
• isolated Israel from neighbouring Arab governments which had been seeking normalised relations;
• killed more than 1,200 Israeli civilians and soldiers and nearly 42,000 people in Gaza, and rendered the idea of an independent Palestinian state simultaneously essential and fantastical.

In the world. October 7 has forced the Israel-Palestinian schism into local politics and culture on every continent including Antarctica (where scientists displayed a Palestinian flag at McMurdo Station):

• Elections. Pro-Palestinian sentiment could cost the Harris campaign dearly in Michigan and thus in the race for the White House. In the UK, a fault line over Palestine that Keir Starmer tried to bury re-emerged to cost Labour four seats in July.
• Geopolitics. The war in Gaza drained western attention and resources from Ukraine. Whether it’s coincidence that October 7 is Putin’s birthday may never be known, but he is winning in Donetsk.
• Diplomacy. South Africa enraged Israel by seeking to bring genocide charges against it at the International Court of Justice. The UN provided a megaphone for both sides but no mechanism to enforce a ceasefire.
• Identity. A new generation of pro-Palestinian protesters filled streets and campuses from London to New York and Winnipeg, embracing language their parents associated – accurately – with Iran’s mission to destroy the Jewish state. Unable to find credible language to straddle the divide, the presidents of Columbia and Harvard Universities lost their jobs.

Revenge cycle. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, will say his ruthless response to October 7 has resulted in numerous achievements, including:

• Exacting a terrible vengeance that will deter future attacks on Israel.
• Neutering – for now – Iran’s most powerful proxies, and dealing a significant blow to its regional leadership ambitions.
• Restoring Israel’s (and Mossad’s) image as a formidable power after the country’s worst intelligence debacle since at least the Yom Kippur war of 1973.

Elusive peace. But three short-term aims continue to elude Netanyahu.

• Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who masterminded the Oct 7 attacks, remains alive.
• Some 97 Israeli hostages are still unaccounted for, some reportedly being held in a protective shield around Sinwar, who is said to wear an explosive vest.
• 60,000 Israelis are unable to return to their homes close to Lebanon because Hezbollah continues to fire rockets over the border.

Long-term, while Netanyahu insists Israel can secure total victory through military means, eliminating the ideology that underpins Hamas cannot be achieved by force. The devastation Israel is inflicting in Gaza and Lebanon is sowing the seeds of anti-Israeli violence in the next generation.

Two-state what? As ever, the only realistic proposal to end three quarters of a century of Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains the two-state solution, which calls for an Israeli state side by side with a Palestinian one in Gaza and the West Bank, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

• For it. This is what Joe Biden has been advocating. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have nominally been pushing for it too. Both care little for the Palestinian cause and are eager to have normal relations with Israel, but feel bound by domestic public opinion to press for Palestinian statehood in exchange for a wider Arab-Israeli deal.
• Against. Netanyahu has no interest in a two-state solution – and is under little genuine international pressure to pursue it, according to Joost Hilterman, of the International Crisis Group.

“The two-state solution is back on the international radar but only rhetorically,” Hilterman says. “Effectively nothing has happened.”

What’s more… With a cabinet stuffed with right-wing ultras, little clamour among the Israeli public for a Palestinian state and platitudes from the rest of the world, the chances of progress remain vanishingly slight. If anything Israel’s success against Hezbollah has boosted Netanyahu, but if he has a strategy beyond his own political survival, he has yet to show it.