Zelensky’s Kursk gamble is paying off – for now

Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia is into its sixth day and so far Putin’s response has been uncertain and unsuccessful.

In four days last week, Ukrainian troops occupied more Russian territory than Russia’s army has in Ukraine since January.

Ukraine’s forces took control of the town of Sudzha near Kursk, crushed a Russian column of heavy armoured vehicles and targeted the Lipetsk air base from which Russia has been attacking Ukraine with jets dropping glide bombs. 76,000 Russians have been evacuated from their homes.

President Zelensky says the idea is to put “pressure on the aggressor” but it’s unclear if his strategy is to take and hold territory as a future bargaining chip or to stay only long enough to force Putin to divert forces from the Donbas.

What is clear is that Ukraine has used weapons donated by Nato members on Russian territory, and Putin has not escalated.

By the numbers:

410 – square kilometres of Kursk region occupied by Ukrainian forces so far

14 – Russian military vehicles claimed to have been destroyed by Ukraine using HIMARS rockets near Rylsk (40 kilometres from the Ukrainian border)

58 – kilometres between Ukrainian border and Kursk nuclear power plant, a potential target of the Ukrainian offensive

Russian authorities from local governors to Vladimir Putin himself looked unprepared:

• Putin called the incursion “a provocation”. Two days later he was urging the Kursk region’s temporary governor to keep his “courage [and] composure”.
• Dmitry Medvedev, the former president who’s now deputy head of Russia’s Security council, wrote on Telegram that Russia should occupy Ukraine from Kharkiv to Odesa, Kyiv and beyond, adding: “Everyone, including English bastards, should realise: we will stop only when we think it is acceptable and beneficial for us.”

“Russian territory that is internationally recognised is occupied and Putin did not [turn] to nukes and so on," the Ukrainian MP Olexiy Honcharenko said. “We are showing the world that the world should not be scared of escalation or the reaction of Putin.”

Action. Ukraine’s President Zelensky said on Thursday that Moscow must "feel" the consequences of its invasion.

Reaction. The US and the EU affirmed Ukraine’s right to self-defence:

• Ukraine’s use of US-supplied weapons is within US policy, deputy Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said, implicitly referring to the use of these weapons on Russian territory.
• The US will continue making sure Ukrainians have what they need to defend themselves, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said.
• Russian troops are attacking Ukraine from the Kursk region, so Ukraine’s advances are “commonsense actions” to protect themselves, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.
• It's “a little bit rich calling it a provocation, given Russia violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Matthew Miller, the US state department spokesperson, said in response to Putin’s statement.
• Ukraine is entitled to hit the enemy wherever it deems it necessary, a European Commission spokesperson said.
• German weapons, including Leopard 2 battle tanks, belong to Ukraine after being supplied to it, and can be used in a war zone which includes “the territory of both states” because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the head of the German Bundestag’s defence committee Marcus Faber said.

Kursk is also famous as the site of the biggest tank battle in history between Nazi and Soviet forces in 1943; and as the first region of then-independent Ukraine to be occupied by Soviet Russia in 1918. It is highly unlikely to be held for long by Ukraine in 2024 but the surprise offensive has already succeeded to the extent that it has forced Russia to redeploy troops from the frontline in eastern Ukraine.

Will Russians protest against their authorities’ inability to protect them or demand more bloodshed in Ukraine? Possibly both, but it’s too soon to say.