Echoes of history haunt Munich Security Conference

In September 1938 the leader of the most powerful empire in history traded land for peace at a conference in Munich and set the world on a path to war.

So what? It’s happening again. There are differences, of course. This time a war is already under way. The challenge is to stop it. But alliances are fracturing, great powers are on manoeuvres and optimism is scarce.

• In Kyiv, Donald Trump’s bid to end the war has been met with alarm not relief.
• In Brussels, his call to Putin on Wednesday blindsided EU and Nato officials even though it was easily foreseen. Europe has been caught with no plan for its own security, much less Ukraine’s, even though the need for one has been evident for years.
• In Munich, an American delegation is expected to meet Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky today, 48 hours after the new Pentagon chief spoke of “stark strategic realities” forcing the US to focus on China, not Europe.

Over to EU. Six times in one short speech, Pete Hegseth, the US defense secretary, told European members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group that European and Ukrainian security is now Europe’s responsibility.

• The headlines were about the US giving up on Ukraine’s 2014 borders and ruling out Ukrainian Nato membership.
• The underlying message is that Europe’s American security umbrella is being withdrawn. An era that started with Pearl Harbor is over.

“Surrender”. Kyiv and its European allies insisted yesterday there could be no peace in Ukraine without Ukraine’s consent. Trump denied bargaining with Ukraine’s sovereignty but his former national security advisor, John Bolton, said he has “effectively surrendered” by conceding leverage on borders and Nato in advance.

The view from Kyiv. “The consequences of Trump's potential deal with Putin will linger for decades,” writes Viktor Shlinchak, a Ukrainian political scientist. “He really wants to win the peace prize. Instead, he is bringing the world closer to global war.” That fear caused Ukrainian social media to light up yesterday with posts from families considering leaving. Few believe a peace deal can be trusted without concrete US security guarantees.

History lessons

1938 – Chamberlain promises “peace for our time” after a flying visit to Munich to meet Hitler. World War Two begins within a year and kills 10 million Ukrainians.

1945 – Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin agree a post-war order at Yalta, 80 years ago almost to the day.

1991 – Bush Sr warns Ukraine against “suicidal nationalism”. Four months later 92 per cent of its people vote to withdraw from the Soviet Union.

1994 – Russia, the US and the UK sign the Budapest Memorandum, barring them from using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

2007 – Putin persuades German chancellor Angela Merkel to reject Ukraine’s and Georgia’s applications to join Nato. Russia invades Georgia the following year.

2014 – Russia annexes Crimea and occupies part of the Donbas.

2022 – Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Worst case scenario. Trump secures US access to Ukraine’s oil, gas and minerals as part of a peace deal. The terms of the deal deprive Ukraine of its territorial integrity. Putin uses the pause in fighting to regroup and rearm. He then tests Nato unity by attacking Poland or one of the Baltic states.

Mark your calendar. On 9 May Russia celebrates the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two. Xi and Trump have been invited to Moscow. Xi has accepted. Trump is thinking about it.