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Israel claimed success yesterday in avoiding a two-front war by preemptively attacking dozens of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. More than 100 Israeli warplanes were in action over southern Lebanon on Sunday. Hezbollah responded with a barrage of some 200 rockets, most of which Israel said it intercepted – but yesterday was calm. The exchange was the most serious so far between the two countries since 7 October, but behind-the-scenes diplomacy and a mutual interest in avoiding regional war seem to have prevailed for now. There is another shoe to drop: Iran has yet to retaliate directly for Israel’s assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on 30 July in Tehran – but there too the appetite for war with Israel is limited. Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks resumed in Cairo on Monday, without Hamas directly involved.
