Expect more and larger wildfires in 2024

As of yesterday, around 7,000 wildfires were burning around the world, with nearly 700 in Brazil, around 295 in Australia, 222 in Russia and 89 in the United States – including one of the worst fires in California’s history. The blaze in Jasper National Park, Canada and those raging in Alaska and Siberia are potentially the most serious and have destroyed millions of acres of boreal forest, the world’s largest biome that circles the planet’s northern hemisphere like a crown across Canada, Siberia, and Scandinavia. In 2012, smoke from boreal fires deposited soot on Greenland’s ice sheets, reducing its ability to reflect heat and leading to extreme melt. In July, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reported “massive amounts of smoke” and “high carbon emissions” across the Arctic, although it isn’t yet clear how much soot will be deposited on the polar ice sheets. Neither Russia nor Canada have a national wildfire strategy. Both have seen record breaking levels of wildfires in July. Both countries typically have more fires in August than July.

The increase in wildfires around the world is also having an effect on the climate. Usually, some of humanity’s carbon release is absorbed by nature in what’s known as the terrestrial carbon sink. Last year the terrestrial carbon sink was not able to absorb as much carbon as normal, partly to do with weather patterns but also thanks to record wildfires releasing carbon from burnt timber. So far, 2024 is on course for more and larger wildfires.