Israel is going it alone in Rafah despite international condemnation

Yesterday at the UN three European countries recognised Palestinian statehood and the security council held an emergency debate on an Israeli airstrike that killed more than 40 refugees. In The Hague, the International Court of Justice demanded that Israel halt its assault on Rafah.

So what? It’s a fair question. No intervention by the UN or the ICJ – or, apparently, the US – has stayed Israel’s hand so far in its mission to eliminate Hamas. On the contrary:

• Israeli tanks are in central Rafah even though Biden said two weeks ago that would cross a red line for his administration.
• The airstrike that killed at least 45 and wounded 249 on Sunday night was on a target in a known camp for displaced people.
• There were unconfirmed reports of dozens more Palestinians killed yesterday in western Rafah. 

The assault in southern Gaza has left Israel more isolated than ever, as the cause of Palestinian statehood gains new friends in Norway, Ireland and Spain. Their announcements, though significant, were symbolic. Israel’s actions are anything but. 

Sunday. An aerial bombardment in northwestern Rafah started a fire – possibly when shrapnel ignited a fuel tank – which raged through tents packed with displaced Palestinian civilians taking refuge from other parts of Gaza.

Monday. In a separate incident an Egyptian security forces member was killed in a border clash with Israeli troops, further straining the already fraught relations between Israel and its southern neighbour.

Tuesday. Israeli tanks shelling a tent camp in the Al-Mawasi evacuation zone west of Rafah allegedly left 37 dead, although Israel denied conducting the attack.

Targets. Israel insists it used precisely targeted munitions to kill two senior Hamas operatives on Sunday’s airstrike, after which Netanyahu called the civilian deaths a tragic mishap and said they would be investigated. Ashraf al Masri, who has moved four times since October, told Tortoise his family was in a tent 100 metres from the edge of the fire and claimed to have counted seven or eight explosions. 

Statehood. The decisions by the three European governments send a powerful message to Israel that its conflict with the Palestinians cannot be solved by a “forever war” but only by a two state solution – which Netanyahu has set his face against. 

• Timing. The governments’ move was planned in advance, but they believe Sunday’s attack reinforced the need for an immediate ceasefire. It follows discussion by EU foreign ministers of sanctions against Israel if it continues to ignore warnings such as the ICJ’s. 
• Impact. An enraged Israel claims a Palestinian state would “reward Hamas”. It has recalled its ambassadors for “consultations” and threatened to stop Spanish NGOs operating in the West Bank.  

What next? Much depends on the US reaction to the continuing Rafah operation, which Biden said would cross his red line unless there was a credible plan to keep civilians safe. No such plan has been forthcoming, although Israel has issued evacuation orders and the UN says around a million Palestinians have fled Rafah in the past three weeks. European politicians from France’s President Macron to Keir Starmer have condemned the Rafah operation but the US has so far been muted.

Red blur. How elastic is Biden’s red line? A White House statement on Monday acknowledged that the latest images from Gaza had been “heartbreaking” but said Israel had the right “to go after” Hamas. Unless the US decisively hardens its opposition – and perhaps even if  it does – Netanyahu seems determined to go it alone if necessary in pursuit of the total victory over Hamas that many of his critics doubt is possible. 

• On his right: his two most extreme ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, are urging him to ignore world opinion and double down in Rafah.
• On his left: Benny Gantz, a minister without portfolio in his war cabinet, has threatened to quit if there’s no plan for the post-war by 8 June. 

 Netanyahu has boxed himself in.