Our Planet Climate and Geopolitics
Before he leaves office, Joe Biden “might agree” to advance the status of Ukraine’s Nato membership bid. That’s according to a Western official who told the FT there were tentative signs it could happen when Biden chairs a defence alliance in Germany on 12 October. What’s unclear is what kind of membership might be granted to Ukraine and within what borders. Jeremy Shapiro from the European Council on Foreign Relations told the paper the West German model “is gaining traction” in the White House, adding that “the Russians would hate that”. West Germany joined Nato while East Germany was under Soviet occupation, before the halves reunited after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Under this model unoccupied Ukraine would join Nato to prevent further encroachment from Moscow. Then perhaps in time, like Germany, Ukraine would become whole again.
To make this sort of plan workable, most Nato allies think a full lasting ceasefire is crucial, as well as a clear determination of which parts of Ukraine are covered by the mutual defence clause.
But there would be further questions:
- What should the demarcation line be called?
- Who would control the ‘new border’, which might be more than 1000 km long?
- How wide should the ‘grey zone’ be?
- How many peacemakers would be needed to patrol it?
- What status would the Russian-controlled territories have?
- Who would take care of human rights in the occupied territories?
“Land for membership is the only game in town,” a western official told the FT. Ukraine’s population might perceive it as a capitulation.
A year ago, some 87 per cent of Ukrainians opposed a ‘land for peace’ deal.
This proportion has fallen sharply, perhaps due to a new mobilisation law, which came into force in May, lowered the age for conscription and required men aged between 25 and 60 to update their personal data with military authorities. In recent months ‘conscription squads’ have stopped Ukrainian men in the streets and carted them off to mobilisation centres.
That said, 55 per cent of Ukrainians still oppose handing over territory in a peace deal.
