Since Kamala Harris entered the US presidential race in July, small donors have helped her campaign raise more than $1 billion – a deeper and more dynamic war chest than Donald Trump’s as the clock ticks down to November.
So what? Money helps, but how you spend it matters more.
- Raising $1 billion in less than 80 days puts Harris way ahead even of the achievements of Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders, who both fired up a passionate base.
- It’s comparable to what Biden raised in all of the 2020 campaign and means Harris is now spending at nearly three times the rate of Trump.
- But a few thousand votes in seven states will decide America’s fate on 5 November, so not every dollar is of equal value. That makes grassroots donors especially important.
Money talks. Official filings showing Harris going past $1 billion are due at the end of this week. In August her campaign was at $685 million, with 41 per cent from small donors.
- In 2008 Obama raised $744 million, with 45 per cent from small donors.
- In 2016 Sanders raised $228 million in his campaign to win the Democratic nomination, with 57 per cent from small donors.
- In 2024 Trump has raised $306 million, with 31 per cent from small donors (who have accounted for half his campaign donations in previous years).
It’s just as well. She needs to outspend him. Polls are neck and neck, a lot of voters are still unclear about what Harris would do in office, there are no more head-to-head TV debates, and Trump still has an unmatched ability to secure free airtime.
That’s all before the $500 million that Elon Musk is reported to have donated to a pro-Trump super PAC.
Where does it go? Mainly social media and TV advertising.
- Social media. Harris spent $54 million in three months, placing 36,805 ads with Meta on Facebook and Instagram. Trump spent $6 million on 5,492 ads.
- TV ads. The Harris campaign has booked $113.4 million from September to November. Trump is spending $59.9 million – although the gap is tighter when ads paid for by outside donors are factored in.
- In total, Democrats spent $1.1 billion on political ads in 70 days, predictably focused on the seven key swing states. Voters in Pennsylvania have been bombarded with more than $250 million worth of ads.
The themes are shifting: Trump is going after Harris on immigration and the economy; Harris has shifted from July’s defensive ads about fighting crime to going after Trump on abortion and taxation.
Ground game. Harris is being funded in part by a young energetic base that includes
- a larger proportion of under 45s than Biden; and
- more than double the proportion of young women who backed Biden.
She is also bringing in slightly more money than Biden did from more educated areas and areas where the Black population is more than 5 per cent.
But the proportion of small donors is particularly important, according to Patrick Frank, former outreach director for ActBlue, the donation platform used by Kamala Harris and the Democrats, for one simple reason: small donors are more likely to do other campaign work.
“People who make donations are simply more likely to do other forms of volunteering too,” he said. “Once you’ve taken ‘one action’ whether it's posting on social media, knocking doors, or donating, you are by far more likely to say yes to more actions versus someone who has not participated.”
Door knocking. For all the podcast appearances and TV ads, the most important thing is to get voters out and that requires on-the-ground hustle. Take Erie County, Pennsylvania, home to 177,000 voters. The county
- voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012;
- voted for Trump in 2016 by a margin of nearly 2,000 votes;
- voted for Biden in 2020 by a margin of 1,400 votes.
This is despite the fact Trump gained nearly 7,000 votes in 2020 compared with his 2016 tally. What gives? Biden managed to turn out 10,000 more voters than Clinton did in 2016.
That means 17,000 voters emerged for the two parties in this one county from one election cycle to the next – and both sides are capable of boosting numbers. Whoever does it best in key areas like Erie County will win the crucial states.
Harris knows this. Harris and the Democratic Party have three offices, eight paid staffers and more than 300 volunteers in Erie County. Trump has two paid staffers who also cover two other counties. His campaign is thought to have fewer volunteers in Erie than the Democrats.
What’s more. In 2016, Trump spent $94 million in the closing weeks of the presidential race. Clinton spent almost $132 million. Money doesn’t always mean victory.
