America’s egg price problem

The average price of a dozen eggs has risen by 18 per cent since Donald Trump returned to the White House, largely driven by an historic outbreak of bird flu.

So what? The skyrocketing cost of eggs has become a shorthand for the inflationary pressures on American families, and by Trump’s own admission to Congress it’s “out of control”.

The average price of a dozen Grade A eggs in the US more than doubled in the past year to $4.95 in January, with some shoppers paying more than $10 a dozen. That’s led to

• an increase in egg-smuggling across the Mexican and Canadian borders;
• some Americans renting chickens for their own backyards to avoid store prices;
• the import of 15,000 tonnes of eggs from Turkey; and
• restaurant chains, including Waffle House, introducing markups on food items containing eggs.

There is little sign prices will fall any time soon. The US Department of Agriculture predicts egg prices could rise another 40 per cent in 2025. But that’s not, as Trump has argued, all Biden’s fault. The real culprits are:

• Bird flu. An outbreak of avian influenza, H5N1, is ripping through US poultry and cattle stocks. More than 160 million birds have been culled since 2022, with 19 million egg-laying chickens slaughtered in January alone, reducing overall stock and increasing farming costs.
• Fowl play. At the same time, major American egg suppliers have been accused of price gouging to profit from the outbreak – even when the flu hasn’t directly affected their own flocks. One of the largest, Cal-Maine, issued $250 million in shareholder dividends in 2023 – 40 times more than in the previous fiscal year.

Breakfast bites. It’s not just because of egg prices that Americans are feeling the pinch. Other key food items have risen above inflation. Between January 2020 and January 2025 the cost of

• coffee has risen by 68 per cent;
• bacon has risen by 28 per cent;
• bread has risen by 42 per cent; and
• milk has risen by 24 per cent.

No yolk. During the election campaign, Trump and JD Vance barely stopped talking about how the cost of eggs and other groceries were the fault of Biden. With prices rising on their watch too, they’ve quietened down. But voters are noticing.

• A Reuters/Ipsos survey last week reported only one in three Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living.
• A recent Gallup poll found Trump’s approval rating on the economy to be lower than at the beginning of his first term in 2017.
• In February the US posted its biggest monthly decline in consumer confidence since 2021 due to uncertainty over a potential trade war and the job market.

One veteran Trump economic adviser told the WSJ that grocery prices should be the administration’s “top priority”.

What is Trump doing about it? Last week the agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, announced a $1 billion plan to address bird flu, which included increased biosecurity efforts and funding to potentially vaccinate the birds.

The problem. Epidemiologists and virologists are concerned that insufficient surveillance, a focus on animal vaccines over human vaccination research, and hints of a move away from mass culling, could mean this outbreak gets worse before it gets better.

What’s more… Robert Garry, a  microbiology and immunology professor at Tulane Medical School, says the data that is coming through on bird flu is “ concerning”, with mutations spotted previously seen in viruses able to spread between people. If human-to-human transmission were to begin with a high mortality rate, grocery prices would be the least of Trump’s worries.