The movie business awards are always political but this year looks like a blockbuster
This Sunday, if the bookies are right, the best picture Oscar will go to Anora – a film that shows a sex worker in a positive light. Running a close second is the Brutalist, which shows a Jewish Holocaust survivor, immigrant and recovering heroin addict in a positive light. Sebastian Stan could win best actor playing Donald Trump as a rapist and amphetamine addict.
So what? Rarely has a best picture shortlist seemed so obviously aimed at the president. This year’s films are an aggressively woke collection. It includes:
I’m Still Here – a Brazilian study of authoritarianism which attracted protests from the far right.
The Substance – a dark feminist body horror satire.
Nickel Boys – a historical drama in a racist 1960s Florida reform school.
Wicked – which imagines the Wizard of Oz as a dictator and Elphaba fighting for social justice.
Conclave – a Vatican thriller set around identity politics.
Dune 2 – which follows the rise of a despot driven by revenge.
A Complete Unknown – which celebrates Bob Dylan’s counterculture hippie years.
Emilia Pérez – a bilingual musical about a transgender Mexican cartel boss.
The Oscars are always political. In 1940, the awards were held at the whites-only Cocoanut Grove, meaning Hattie McDaniel, the first black actor to win an Oscar, was initially banned then had to sit alone at a small table after the producer of the film made a special request for her attendance.
In 1973, Marlon Brando invited the Native American activist Sacheen Littlefeather to take his place on stage and refused his best actor nod for The Godfather.
In 2024, the Jewish director Jonathan Glazer called for a ceasefire in Gaza when accepting his award for Holocaust film Zone of Interest.
But a storm is coming. After an election in which the Los Angeles elite was all in for Kamala Harris, the Hollywood Reporter’s Oscar week feature was headlined Trump and Circumstance: How Oscars Will Meet the Maga Moment. That moment involves manoeuvering by studios and mobilisation of a rare species – the left coast conservative.
- Trump has appointed Jon Voight, Mel Gibson, and Sylvester Stallone as “Special Ambassadors” to a “great but very troubled place, Hollywood, California,” where they will be his “eyes and ears”.
- Paramount announced Wednesday that it would roll back its DEI policies. The company owns CBS which faces a $20 billion lawsuit from Trump over an election interview with Kamala Harris.
- Disney has scrubbed its Reimagine Tomorrow initiative, launched in 2021 to “amplify underrepresented voices”, and is removing trigger warnings from older Disney films.
Follow the money. Tinseltown and techland both overindex on young, international talent who might not ordinarily court Trump. But Silicon Valley’s fortunes in particular will depend on
- the new administration’s approach to AI and crypto regulation,
- antitrust enforcement, and
- the race with China.
The favours Trump could do for the movie business are limited, but tech companies launching streamers and buying up studios may change this.
Who watches the Oscars anyway? 2024’s broadcast was the most watched since 2020, thanks largely to Barbenheimer. Without any equivalent hits, the total global box office for this year’s best picture contenders is $1.7 billion, down 37 per cent from last year’s $2.7 billion.
Loss leader. LA’s film industry, by and large, pays its own way. The Oscars are the space where creative types are rewarded for art, not just commerce. The awards’ founder Louis B. Mayer said: “I found that the best way to handle [filmmakers] was to hang medals all over them.”
What’s more… Studios are banks. Traditionally, when an Oscars bump meant tickets sold, the money didn’t care what the movies said. With this president all bets are off. Next year may be different.
