Irish election: the 45-second clip that could cost Fine Gael the election

Polls open in Ireland’s general election this morning, with Fine Gael hoping to extend its record 14 years in power.

The centre-right party aimed for a “Harris hop”, building its campaign around Simon Harris, the energetic new taoiseach. That plan unravelled in about 45 seconds, when Harris was filmed last week walking away from Charlotte Fallon, a disability worker, in a supermarket in Cork as she described a lack of government support for the sector.

The encounter was jarring, not least because Harris has made disability issues one of his key campaign pledges; his mother is a special needs assistant and his brother has autism.

Harris later apologised to Fallon and told reporters that he let himself down, but not before the clip went viral on social media.

The misstep could cost him his job – a poll released on Monday showed Fine Gael’s support falling six points in less than two weeks.

What to expect. Almost 700 candidates are vying for one of 174 seats across 43 constituencies. No party is likely to win enough seats to form a majority, so another coalition seems inevitable.

Analysts predict the most likely outcome is a repeat of the coalition led by Fianna Fáil (another centre-right party) and Fine Gael, with either the Green Party or Labour drafted in to form a majority.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald seems hopeful her left-wing republican party can govern without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, but there’s a question mark over who they could form a coalition with. Sinn Féin won more seats than Fine Gael in 2020, but Fianna Fáil refused to work with them, keeping Mary Lou McDonald’s party in the wilderness.

Three things to watch:

• The party: Sinn Féin. After dominating the polls since 2020, its support began to dip in late 2023. The party did badly in local elections in June and has suffered several safeguarding scandals in recent months. How will this play out at the polling booth?
• The constituency: Dublin Central – a political microcosm. A number of big names are hoping to nab one of the four seats in this constituency, including Mary Lou McDonald, public expenditure minister Paschal Donohue, former MEP Clare Daly (who has been accused of having links to Russia), far-right councillor Malachy Steenson, and reputed gangland boss Gerry “The Monk” Hutch.
• The movement: right-wing candidates. The Irish Times estimates that at least 60 candidates – many of them independent – fall under the anti-immigration and/or far-right umbrella, but lists of “nationalists” circulating on social media tally as many as 84 candidates. Support for independents rose from 12 per cent in the last election to 18 per cent last week.

What’s more… Ireland’s public purse is bulging thanks to corporation tax receipts from large multinationals, but the average person isn’t feeling flush. This could make voters even more annoyed, says author Fintan O’Toole in the NYT.