Of Musk and men: Elon could swing it for Donald Trump

Elon Musk appeared at Donald Trump’s closing rally in Madison Square Garden on Sunday, wearing a black Maga cap and pumping his fists in the air.

So what? Musk is Trump’s version of Beyoncé and Reid Hoffman rolled into one. He’s a high-profile celebrity supporter who’s donated $118 million to the Republican candidate. The owner of Tesla and X is also a key figure for a demographic that might swing the election for Trump: young men.

A divided election. The gender gap has never been wider than in this election.

• A USA Today/Suffolk poll taken this month gives Trump a 53 to 37 per cent lead among men. Harris has a near-mirror image 53 to 36 per cent lead among women.
• Last week, an NBC News poll found a nearly even Trump-Harris split among men ages 30 or younger. In contrast, Harris has about a 30-point lead among young women.
• Men under 30 have shifted towards Republicans by 14 points since 2020, and male voters aged 18 to 24 are now more likely to identify as conservative than liberal.

Musk and the manosphere. If Trump can persuade young American men to vote for him, he may win. Many are struggling with job prospects and may be seeking a new ideological home. The Harvard Youth Poll, a national survey, found that nearly three quarters of Gen Z men reported feeling “regularly stressed” by an uncertain future, with many describing their prospects as “bleak” and “scary”.

But getting them to the ballot box is easier said than done. Women are more likely to vote than men, and Harris maintains a 16-point lead among young men who say they definitely will vote. That’s where Musk comes in.

• Musk’s super PAC has bought ads specifically targeting young males. The ads promote Trump as an “American badass” who can save the nation and open with a shot of a young bearded man slumped on a sofa: “If you sit this election out, Kamala and the crazies will win.”
• Musk has shared content designed to appeal to young men, including a theory that only “alpha males” can be trusted to make good decisions. He also reposted a faked video of Harris apparently calling herself the “ultimate diversity hire”.
• A Washington Post analysis this week found that Republican posts were more likely to go viral on X, although it didn’t find direct evidence of manipulation.

A recent YouGov poll of US men under 30 found that Musk was among the most popular influencers, with almost 70 per cent of young men saying they liked him. When Musk speaks, millions of young men listen.

As Tina Brown, the former New Yorker editor, put it: “For Trump’s base of red-meat male voters, the transgressive, disruptive, superstar rocket man is even more exciting than Trump himself.”

The frat boy flank. Musk is part of a broader drive by Trump to capture the “bro” vote. Trump has appeared on podcasts with huge audiences of young men, and hosted by the likes of comedian Theo Von, internet pranksters the Nelk Boys, YouTuber Logan Paul and the Twitch streamer Adin Ross. Many promote an anti-woke agenda that says feminism has gone too far.

Trump has attracted other billionaire supporters, apart from Musk, connected to hot-button issues among young men. These include

• the Winklevoss twins, crypto bros who see Trump as “pro-Bitcoin” and have donated millions to his campaign;
• Jeffrey Yass, the richest man in Pennsylvania, who holds a 7 per cent stake in TikTok and reportedly persuaded Trump to oppose a ban on the platform;
• Ike Perlmutter, former chairman of Marvel, who has given more than $20 million to a pro-Trump super Pac and appears to dislike female superhero movies; and
• fellow businessman Nelson Peltz, who has criticised Marvel’s “woke strategy”.

To John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s junior Democratic senator, Musk’s support of Trump is a game changer. “To a lot of people, that’s Tony Stark,” he told the NYT. “That’s the world’s richest guy… and he’s saying, Hey, that’s my guy for president. That’s going to really matter.”

What’s more… Elon Musk is only Trump’s second biggest donor. The most generous is Timothy Mellon, an 82-year-old railway magnate and heir to the Mellon banking fortune. His grandfather served under Messrs Harding, Coolidge and Hoover.