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Our Planet Climate and Geopolitics

Warming sea had a role in the Bayesian disaster

For all the conspiracy theories raging about the sinking of Mike Lynch’s yacht, the Bayesian, and the bleak coincidence that his co-defendant in a fraud trial died the day before, a contributing cause is climate change.

The Mediterranean reached its highest ever recorded surface temperature last Thursday, with a peak of over 31C. Tornadic waterspouts – the violent whirling columns of air and water that struck the Bayesian at 4.30 am on Monday – form in storms when heat and humidity are high.

One such tornado overturned yachts off the Balearic island of Formentera last week. They are increasingly frequent in Sicily, where the sea has been three degrees warmer than normal and where Lynch had been celebrating his acquittal in the US in June.

Lynch, his daughter Hannah, his lawyer Chris Morvillo and Jonathan Bloomer, chair of Morgan Stanley International and of the insurance company Hiscox (founded in 1901 to underwrite marine insurance) are among the missing. One former superyacht crew member described freak weather events on such boats as terrifying: “The furniture isn’t fixed to the floor so it hurtles around. The cockpit doors are often left open in the heat. Water could pour in in seconds.” James Catfield, the Bayesian’s 51 year-old captain, who is one of 15 survivors, was quoted as saying “we didn’t see it coming”.

After the separate death of Lynch’s co-defendant, Stephen Chamberlain, who was hit by a car while running in Cambridgeshire on Saturday, the driver of a blue Vauxhall Corsa – a 49-year-old woman – is helping police with their enquiries.


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