Billions are being spent on the carcass of a British infrastructure project that could leave passengers paying more for less.
Ministers in Keir Starmer’s new government were supposed to have received proposals by now on how to move forward with the London terminus of High Speed 2 (HS2), the state-of-the-art rail link designed to connect London and the north of England.
So what? They haven’t. Nearly a year after Rishi Sunak scrapped HS2’s Birmingham-to-Manchester leg there are still no firm ideas on how the Euston terminus will be funded, if it ever is.
What’s worse, the Euston branch’s purgatory is a microcosm of the larger mess that is HS2. Ever since Sunak curtailed the project and removed most funding for the Euston end, engineers and project managers have been scrambling to make what’s left work. But it doesn’t.
Reducing the scheme to the London-to-Birmingham line without a new Euston station would leave unsolved most of the problems it was conceived to address, including in relation to
- Capacity – with acute strain likely on low-speed services over the last seven miles to central London;
- Costs – including billions spent despite the cancellation of the northern leg; and
- Commuter satisfaction – because passengers promised fast direct services would have to get used to changing trains at Old Oak Common in West London.
Short track. Excluding HS2, the UK has built 110 km of new high-speed rail since 2000. France has built 12 times that. If an attack hit the UK’s railway network as it did France’s before the Olympics, there would be no alternative lines onto which to divert trains.
It’s the capacity, stupid. Despite its name, HS2 has always been about capacity. Its builders promise to double seat numbers out of Euston. If the extension north of the Midlands were revived it would
- allow for more trains to run non-stop to big cities like Birmingham and Manchester;
- free up space on the WCML for stopping services; and
- make more track available for lucrative (and environmentally friendly) freight trains.
But Starmer says no. The new government has not just ruled out reviving the northern leg. It has pointedly declined to confirm funding for the Euston terminus even though Sunak did in the end earmark £1 billion for the approach tunnel, and two giant tunnelling machines have arrived from Germany and are ready to go.
False economy? As things stand new HS2 trains will have to transfer onto old tracks at Birmingham. But they can’t tether to each other or tilt around corners on old tracks like current trains can; they will have to run at slower speeds and with 17 per cent fewer passengers. There are reportedly plans to incentivise passengers to avoid taking trains to lower demand.
Money, money, money. Millions have been squandered on parts of the plan. A recent National Audit Office report highlights:
- £592 million spent on land no longer required between Birmingham and Manchester;
- £100 million in other costs associated with scrapping that stretch;
- £460 million on the new Birmingham Curzon Street station, which will have seven platforms even though current plans only require three;
- £153 million on the new London Euston station, where construction has been “paused” indefinitely.
At least £30 billion has already been spent on HS2 in 2019 prices. That could rise to £57 billion.
Unfare. Passengers currently pay a premium for inconsistent services on the WCML. To limit demand, regulators may raise fares further once HS2 opens.
A private function. The last government said the Euston terminus would only be built if it could attract adequate private backing. It could still happen. “A deal with the government is always possible,” says Dr Tim Leunig of the LSE, a former Sunak advisor. But it’s not clear whether there’s adequate investor appetite even in exchange for development rights above ground.
Labour’s choice. HS2 began as a Labour project in 2009, but Starmer has been publicly opposed to it since running for parliament in 2015. In the past year, rather than commit to reversing the cancellation of the Birmingham–Manchester stretch, he accused the Conservatives of “blowing the budget”.
The National Audit Office report on HS2 says the government needs to “reset the programme successfully”. Without some sort of backtrack, it’s hard to see how.
What’s more… Rail passengers in the UK are set to double by 2050. Tick tock.
