The route to a third runway at Heathrow is navigable – but not simple

Hopes for a third runway at London Heathrow Airport are taking off. The plans were paused in 2020 after a court challenge and the aviation industry’s slow recovery from Covid kept them grounded. But now, the new Labour government says it could support a third runway – if the proposals overcome noise and air pollution hurdles, are compatible with the UK’s climate targets and generate economic growth. The potential benefit for the government is simple: large projects create growth during and after construction, and a bigger airport improves London’s position on the world stage as an economic hub. But more runways equals more planes, which are very loud and heavy polluters. Heathrow’s existing plans (cost: £500 million) would likely have to be altered.

Labour reportedly thinks sustainable airline fuel (SAF) could be a route to climate-positive air travel in the UK. The government announced a bill in the King's Speech that would support the production of SAF. But SAF isn’t as environmentally friendly as many claim, and a normal flight still produces hundreds of tonnes of CO2.

Heathrow’s bosses believe they can expand from 80 million to 100 million annual passengers without the need for a new runway, but they admit long-term expansion relies on another runway to cope with demand.

For context:

• Amsterdam’s Schiphol (Europe’s second busiest airport after Heathrow) has six runways.
• Paris Charles De Gaulle (third) and Frankfurt (fourth) have four each.
• O'Hare International Airport in Chicago has eight.

Heathrow’s reputation isn’t flying high. The chief executive of IAG (owner of British Airways and other airlines) said Heathrow is already losing out to other European airports due in part to a lack of investment. Emirates’ chief recently compared Heathrow to a post-Second World War airport.

Ardian, the French Private Equity firm, and the Saudi Arabia Public Investment fund are currently in the process of securing a 38 per cent stake in Heathrow. They may think overhauling the airport’s expansion plans to clamber over Labour’s hurdles is a gamble worth taking.