Capital Economy, Business and Finance
Markets and betting firms appear to think the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump makes his re-election more likely – and that a second Trump term would mean higher tariffs, upward pressure on wages and a possible return of above-target inflation. Solid evidence is thin because the shooting happened on a Saturday and today is a holiday in Japan, but one betting site had Trump twice as likely to win as Biden last night (up from 60 to 66 per cent over the weekend). Out-of-hours trading in US stocks and futures was unremarkable, but traders canvassed by Bloomberg said they thought prison operators, gun makers and bitcoin miners would all do well from four more years of Trump. US analysts’ expectations of a rate cut later this year rose – but so did the yield curve on 10-year government bonds. This could be the calm before a long storm of volatility.
