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A global oil glut could mean OPEC loses its ability to manipulate oil prices by the end of the decade. The International Energy Agency has brought forward its forecast of peak oil demand from 2030 to 2029, and raised its estimate of oil surpluses at that point to 8 million barrels a day. The cause of what could be history’s biggest imbalance of oil supply and demand would be continued expansion of output by OPEC's members and the US, while EVs take over from petrol-powered cars and renewables account for more of primary energy supply. The IEA is conspicuously optimistic about the power of European net zero targets and phaseout timetables for internal combustion engines to depress global fossil fuel demand – but if the agency is right, Russia, Saudi and its neighbours don’t have long to diversify. Separately but related: the rush to build batteries could mean supply outstrips demand five-fold by next year.
