Culture Society, Identity and Belonging
What effect might summer events have on the election? Glastonbury (26-30 June) is almost uniquely unqualified to influence political discourse. The EU referendum took place during the festival in 2016, choruses of “ohhhh, Jeremy Corbyn” in 2017 came two years before Boris Johnson’s 80-seat majority in 2019 and the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament has featured prominently at the festival since 1981. Football has a more dramatic effect. The Euros quarter finals are 5 and 6 July. If England is still in the tournament, it could boost Sunak. Research from Stanford University in 2010 found that a football team winning in the 10 days before an election garnered incumbent politicians an extra 1.61 per cent of the vote. If England is out, it’ll hurt. In 1970, Labour prime minister Harold Wilson called a summer election hoping for a World Cup boost. England were knocked out in the quarter-finals. Four days later Wilson was kicked out of Downing Street.