Two numbers to think about: 6.6 billion and 10,000. The former is the number of dollars in loans and grants Taiwan’s biggest chip-maker is getting from the Biden administration to open a big new factory in Arizona. The latter is the number of votes by which Biden won the state in 2020. There is no more direct link between the two than there is between comparable state-backed investments funded by the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act in other swing states (IRA investments alone total $53.6 billion so far in the seven closest states). And there are two other compelling reasons for TSMC to start making chips in the US: it needs capacity outside Taiwan in the event of war with mainland China, and so does America, its biggest customer. Still, the political context of the investment is hard to ignore, even if any benefits that will accrue to Arizona voters still aren’t cutting through with pollsters. A third number to think about is 4.5 – Trump’s average lead in head-to-head polls with Biden in Arizona.