Sensemaker Daily
Russia says conversation shows Germany planning to attack, but the reverse is true.
Russia’s interception of a phone call between senior German military officers talking about sending missiles to Ukraine is mortifying for Berlin.
So what? It’s worse than that. The publication of a transcript of the call last week by a Kremlin propagandist laid bare the vulnerability of Germany’s military high command to Russian spyware.
In quick succession since then
- Germany has accused Russia of waging information war;
- Russia has accused Germany of preparing for actual war; and
- France’s President Macron, in a thinly veiled criticism of Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said this is no time “to be a coward”.
The hack could hardly be worse-timed for Ukraine or its allies, sowing mistrust between them and opening a window on their planning as Trump threatens to undermine the Nato umbrella on which they depend.
The bridge. State-run Russian media pounced on the tape to claim it shows the Germans discussing how to destroy the strategic Kerch Strait bridge linking Russia and Crimea. If only. A calmer reading shows Commander-in-chief Ingo Gerhartz of the German air force and three colleagues listing reasons to delay the deployment of medium-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, and ways to distance Germany from involvement in the war.
Key lines:
If, not when. “We need to make sure that from the very beginning there is no language that makes us a party to the conflict” – Air Force General Frank Graefe, in response to a question from Gerhartz about whether German experts could disguise their communications with Ukrainian forces.
Scholz has since stated publicly that deploying the missiles is impossible because it requires the presence of German soldiers (it doesn’t).
Lead time. “It took about a year to train our [own] staff, and we are now trying to reduce that time to ten weeks and at the same time hope that they will be able to race off-road in a Formula 1 car” – Stefan Fenske of the Bundeswehr Space Command Air Operations Centre on the challenge of providing accelerated training for Ukrainian missile forces.
He also said it would take eight months to produce the missile and six to build mountings to load them onto Soviet or US-built fighter jets.
Target. “We all know that they want to destroy the bridge, what this ultimately means, how they are protecting it -– not only because of its military-strategic importance, but also its political significance” – General Gerhartz, following a discussion of softer targets such as ammunition depots on the Crimean peninsula.
Destroying the bridge would isolate Russian troops and deliver a powerful symbolic blow to the Kremlin – but it would take up to 20 Taurus missiles, Fenske said, and might require the use of French Rafale fighters Ukraine doesn’t yet have.
The British. “When the first missiles are delivered, we need to make quick decisions regarding mountings and training. We may have to turn to the British on these issues and take advantage of their know-how” – General Graefe, discussing what to do in practice “if the Federal Chancellor decides to go for this”.
The idea of turning to the British for help crops up frequently on the call in relation to planning, training, delivering missiles to Ukraine and mounting them on fighters – in short, whenever the discussion inches closer to the “red lines” Germany has set itself despite Scholz’s professed “turning point” following the invasion of Ukraine.
Red lines. “It is important to me that we present a sober assessment and do not add fuel to the fire, as others do by supplying Storm Shadow and Scalp,” – General Gerhartz, in a dig at the British and French that seems to betray a [clear] preference for providing Scholz with options over providing missiles for Ukraine.
Germany’s self-imposed rules include
- not sharing targeting intelligence with Ukraine;
- not having even secure communications with Ukrainian forces and;
- not supplying weapons that could be fired into Russian territory, even though Russia targets Ukraine daily.
Cold feet. Scholz may feel his hands are tied by strong pacifist sentiment in his coalition, but the phone call has been great for Putin, says Ben Bradshaw, the former Labour foreign office minister. “He’s been able to embarrass Germany and create mistrust between the western allies, but also make it more difficult for Scholz to pivot back towards Ukraine.”
What’s more… no one disputes the call is genuine.
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