Culture Society, Identity and Belonging
Britain’s Labour Party has claimed another pair of by-election victories and added two new MPs to its fold, overturning big Conservative majorities in the process. In Wellingborough, the opposition party secured its second-largest by-election swing from the Tories, with 29 per cent, turning a Conservative majority of more than 18,500 into a Labour majority of 13,844 for Gen Kitchen.
In Kingswood, Labour’s Damian Egan took the seat with 11,176 votes, overturning the Tories’ previous majority of more than 11,000. The result will bolster Labour after a fortnight of difficult headlines, prompted by a U-turn on its flagship £28 billion green investment pledge and a major anti-Semitism row.
Keir Starmer, the party leader, said the results “show people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it”. Reform, previously the Brexit party, came third in both seats, taking fewer Tory votes than anticipated but still enough to make it a serious headache for the Conservatives in any general election.
One Tory MP told Tortoise: “I do acknowledge 10 –13 per cent will still cause problems for the Conservatives – I’d just have expected Reform to do better and it’s clear [Nigel] Farage is their man that they need.”
Even before the results were announced, the Conservatives had sprung into damage limitation mode, with party insiders stressing that the Wellingborough campaign had been tarnished by association with Peter Bone. The by-election was prompted by the former MP’s suspension after a parliamentary inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct. Helen Harrison, the Conservative candidate to succeed him, is his partner. That link was branded “deeply toxic” by one source.
But while local considerations will have played a role, the national picture – a two-year cost of living crisis, creaking public services and a lack of enthusiasm for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak – are the overriding factors.
These results therefore increase the risk to Sunak of pressure from within his own party yet again, with reports that rebels have lined up a “grid of shit” to further destabilise him A second Tory MP said: “Rishi does not connect [with voters] and they [fellow MPs] will dump him.”
That prospect is played down by others in the party who say it’s unrealistic to expect the electorate to vote for a party that has jettisoned three prime ministers in five years.
Either way, the Tories have now lost 10 by-elections in one parliamentary term: two more than under John Major during the parliament before Tony Blair’s 1997 victory. As polling guru Sir John Curtice has said, at this stage it appears to be all over bar the shouting.