Sensemaker Daily
The result was the most likely outcome – and the least welcome for Beijing
On Saturday William Lai Ching-te, a miner’s son turned doctor and fierce defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty, was elected as Taiwan’s next president.
Lai took 40 per cent of the vote for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in a three-way race – the first time since Taiwan began holding free presidential elections in 1996 that a party has been democratically elected for a third term.
So what? It was the most likely outcome, and the least welcome for Beijing. Initial statements from both sides have been conciliatory but Lai’s win will ratchet up tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
China has been stepping up its military intimidation campaign against the self-ruled island, which China views as its own and vows to take back by force if necessary.
– Taiwan fell under the administration of the Republic of China government in 1945, and the Chinese Nationalist (KMT) government fled there after losing the Chinese civil war in 1949.
– The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have never ruled Taiwan.
“During this election which has attracted global attention, Taiwan has told the world that between democracy and authoritarianism, we chose to stand on the side of the democratic camp. This is what this campaign means to the world,” Lai told supporters at a victory rally.
Chinese state media reports had warned that China might be forced to “solve the Taiwan question through more direct means” if Lai won the presidency. The PRC prefers the more China-friendly KMT.
Taiwan’s government says it faced substantial election interference attempts from Beijing in an effort to drive votes away from Lai. These attempts included:
– mis- and disinformation;
– economic coercion;
– funded trips to China; and
increased military activity in the Taiwan Strait.
Chen Binhua, a spokesperson from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said Lai’s election “cannot represent mainstream opinion on the island.” Over the weekend Beijing scolded global leaders who congratulated Lai for interfering in China’s “internal affairs”.
– Lai once called himself a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence.”
– He scaled back that rhetoric in recent years, aligning himself with his party’s stance that Taiwan is already sovereign and does not need to declare independence.
– The PRC brands Lai a “secessionist”.
Divide and rule. Lai has vowed consistency and continuity with his predecessor’s policies toward China, which is Taiwan’s biggest trading partner.
This means China’s coercive actions are expected to continue, but an invasion remains unlikely while China faces economic headwinds and wants to improve relations with the US, said Arthur Ding, a professor emeritus of National Chengchi University.
China “might work better with opposition parties so [it] can continue to divide and rule domestically in Taiwan,” Ding said. “Not just at the central level, but also locally.”
The Pelosi effect. The PRC cut off talks with Taiwan in 2016 following President Tsai’s first win. Andrew Scobell, a distinguished fellow on China at the US Institute of Peace, said a third DPP term and America’s expressions of support for Taiwan may have pushed China to rethink its peaceful unification policy.
“If Xi Jinping assesses that there still is the potential for “peaceful” unification, he is likely to adopt an approach to Taiwan that may be more conciliatory. But if he’s fundamentally changed his view on Taiwan, then the chances of any warming or improvement of relations is pretty low,” he said.
A trip to the island by then-US speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022 prompted Chinese military exercises that resembled a blockade rehearsal, underlining the risks of potential conflict.
Political shakeup. While Lai won the presidency, his party did not get a majority in the legislature. That means the DPP is going to face major challenges in passing legislation, particularly budgets and policies related to Taiwan’s defence and relations with China. Taiwan’s 113 legislative seats split:
– 51 for the DPP
– 52 for the KMT
– 8 for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)
– 2 independent seats
The Taiwan People’s Party spoke best to young people’s frustrations with high housing costs and low wages. It now has leverage in the legislature – both larger parties will need its support to get a majority.
At a DPP rally outside the party’s headquarters on Saturday, Kevin Zhuang, 56, said he was “very worried” about Taiwan’s future – especially since the DPP appears to be losing young voters.
“I’m afraid that this means Taiwan is not united,” he said. “Over 50 per cent of Taiwanese people didn’t vote for Lai Ching-te.” Beijing stands ready to take advantage of divisions.
Jordyn Haime is a Taiwan-based freelance journalist