Sunak survives Rwanda bill rebellion

Rishi Sunak is painting the Rwanda vote in the Commons on Tuesday as a grand victory. After a day of fevered speculation that the government could fall, the “Five Families” of Tory rebels opted to abstain rather than vote against his flagship legislation, enabling the bill to proceed to the next stage.

It passed with a majority of 44; after knocking out MPs with legitimate reasons not to vote, 29 Tories abstained. Sunak’s relief was palpable: sources told Tortoise he was thanking MPs personally in the “aye” voting lobby and he entered the chamber for the result, hugging his chief whip Simon Hart once the figures were revealed.

But while Sunak lives to fight another day, he has merely postponed the problem.

The reality is not straightforward. 

• Bills are rarely defeated at second reading – the last was in 1986.
• Sunak’s whipping operation was chaotic. Loyal MPs were summoned in for unnecessary grillings, rebels were threatened with losing the whip – despite the vote not being a confidence matter – only to have the threat rescinded.
• The rebels said they will block the bill at third reading if it isn’t amended to their liking;
• but that will raise concerns among the larger One Nation centrist grouping, which is already uneasy about the policy. 

Not all of the 29 rebels are on the right: Jesse Norman has made a public stand against the policy and Stephen McPartland was seen in intense talks with ministers right up to the vote.  

Having survived on the promise that he would consider amendments from the right, Sunak could easily lose to an organised rebellion on the left of his party.

The rebels are now expected to use Christmas recess to persuade further colleagues to their cause, but they have shown that they have sufficient numbers to make the Prime Minister nervous. 

The next stage will take place in January, at the start of a year in which a general election is all but certain to happen. With further infighting likely, yesterday’s result simply kicks the problem further down the road.