Culture Society, Identity and Belonging
Rishi Sunak is facing the most dangerous moment of his premiership, Tory MPs tell Tortoise.
Last night Robert Jenrick, the UK’s immigration minister, resigned shortly after the government published its proposed legislation that would see the UK disapply components of various international treaties, including the European Convention on Human Rights and the Refugee Convention, as well as the UK’s Human Rights Act, in yet another effort to begin deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda.
The Supreme Court has unanimously rejected the plan as unlawful. Right-wing Tories, including the former home secretary Suella Braverman, have called on Sunak to withdraw from the ECHR entirely in what has become known as the “full fat” option.
But the bill published on Wednesday evening opted for a “semi-skimmed” alternative. Jenrick is now seen as “the hero of the right”, said one Conservative. Another MP suggested this crisis could lead to a “put up or shut up” style snap election, potentially early next year.
The alternative for Sunak would be months of rebellions, hostile briefings and a further decline in the polls.
As MPs started to digest the legislation, Jenrick went to ground. While addressing backbench Tories at a meeting of the 1922 committee, Sunak did not deny Jenrick had resigned, fuelling rumours that his long-standing ally had quit. But it was not until more than an hour later – after an excruciating Commons debate in which ministers were quizzed over Jenrick’s absence – that it was finally confirmed.
Tory MPs believe Sunak now faces a possible threat to his leadership. “There is a huge danger of everything unravelling very quickly,” said one senior MP. Another said Jenrick’s lack of endorsement meant “things will become quite dramatic”.
Backbenchers held hurried meetings to discuss next steps, renewing talk that enough letters of no confidence may be sent to the backbench 1922 Committee to trigger a vote. The consensus is that Sunak would win such a vote, but no prime minister has ever survived for long thereafter.
One former minister said Jenrick’s departure was “another Jenga block removed for Rishi,” adding: “It is bad. If there was an alternative he would be gone tonight.”
Speaking in the Commons earlier in the day, Braverman repeated her call for Sunak to take a stronger approach to immigration. “Do we fight for our sovereignty or do we let our party die?” she asked. In a BBC interview today she said she was not looking to oust Sunak, despite months of agitating from both the front and back benches.
But her base is limited – many MPs are put off by her divisive rhetoric – while Jenrick has impressed colleagues on the right with his recent conversation to their cause.
Sunak is due to give a hastily arranged press conference later on Thursday. To many in Westminster, this is seen as the prime minister fighting for political survival.