Robert F. Kennedy Jr is running as an independent candidate for president. His campaign may not last – but his anti-vaccine and conspiracy-centred views will
Robert F. Kennedy Jr, America’s most powerful anti-vaxxer, is running as an independent candidate for president.
So what? Kennedy will take votes from both Joe Biden and Donald Trump – but Republicans are more nervous. Kennedy may have one of the most prominent names in Democratic politics, but his anti-vaccine and conspiracy-centred views draw more support from the other side.
Kennedy has promoted the following false conspiracies:
- That Covid-19 was genetically engineered to target certain races – Caucasians and Black people – while giving “Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese” people immunity (he denied his comments were anti-Semitic);
- that transgender identity is linked to chemicals present in water sources; and
- that mass school shootings have increased because of the heightened use of antidepressants.
The RFK effect. A recent poll suggests that Kennedy’s candidacy could damage Trump. In a head-to-head matchup, the poll found that Biden beat Trump by three points among registered voters. If Kennedy is a third-party candidate, Biden opens up a 7-point lead over Trump, beating him by 44 per cent to 37 per cent, with Kennedy taking 16 per cent of the vote.
Caveats. Kennedy could struggle to get his name on the ballot in every state. He has not yet faced negative messaging from the Trump campaign and other polls suggest Kennedy would get far fewer votes.
If Kennedy wins 5 per cent of the popular vote – something no third-party candidate has achieved in over 25 years – he would cost Biden and Trump between one and two points each, according to ABC News. The result would have to be extremely close for this to change the winner.
Anti-vax superstar. Kennedy is well known for promoting the scientifically discredited belief that childhood vaccines cause autism. That notion has been rejected by several large-scale peer-reviewed studies. He has also falsely claimed that the coronavirus jab was the “deadliest vaccine ever made”.
Wakefield. False links between the MMR vaccine and autism were first promoted by Andrew Wakefield, a disgraced British gastroenterologist, in a 1998 paper published in The Lancet.
- The paper was later retracted and Wakefield was struck off.
- He found later success in America and has been called the “patient zero” of the modern-day anti-vaccine movement.
- Many of his techniques, including forging bonds with parents of autistic children, have been adopted by other anti-vaxxers, including Kennedy.
- In 2019, Kennedy called Wakefield “among the most unjustly vilified figures of modern history.” He has served as executive producer on one of Wakefield’s recent films.
Wakefield’s fall and rise – and his links to Kennedy – are the subject of Dr Anti-Vax, a Tortoise podcast series starting this week. He did not respond to a request for comment.
Money and misinformation. American Values, the main political action committee supporting Kennedy’s White House bid, raised $9.8 million in the first six months of the year and an additional $6.5 million in July. Donors include Timothy Mellon, the grandson of Andrew Mellon, the former US Treasury secretary, and Gavin de Becker, a security consultant close to Jeff Bezos.
Kennedy is also adept at raising money on social media, where he has millions of followers despite being banned from Instagram and Facebook between 2021 and 2023. He has raised over $2 million from small-dollar donors.
Outside of politics, Kennedy sits at the top of a well-funded anti-vaccine operation called Children’s Health Defense, which generated revenue of $15.7 million in 2021. During Covid the group spent heavily on anti-vaccine ads on Facebook; a Tortoise analysis in 2021 of more than 145,000 Facebook and Instagram posts found that Kennedy’s posts had achieved a greater level of impact than anyone else’s.
Kennedy said at the time: “Does it trouble me that people are angry at me? No, it does not. That’s what I signed on for.”
Anti-vax in power. Thanks to men like Wakefield and Kennedy, anti-vaccine sentiment is now part of mainstream thought. One in four Americans believe that some vaccines cause autism.
Republican presidential candidates Ron DeSantis and Trump have also promoted vaccine-sceptical beliefs – DeSantis has promised Kennedy a big public health job in his administration.
Even if Kennedy’s presidential campaign peters out, his legacy could have a lasting impact.
