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#CopingWithCovid

thinkin

Open News Special Edition Covid: what we’ve learnt, and what next?

This is a digital-only ThinkIn. For our last Open News meetings of the year, Tortoise journalists and members, with expert contributors who’ve worked with us throughout 2021, will come together to take stock of what our reporters have uncovered about what’s driven the news this year, and what it has told us about the forces that are shaping our world. What have we learned? What questions remain unanswered, and what new ones have arisen? At Tortoise, we always said that we would stay interested when the rest of the news media moves on. This week we’re looking at Covid. Is the UK Government’s strategy making a difference and how does it compare to what’s going on Europe? As Austria, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Italy reintroduce restrictions from tougher social distancing to mandatory vaccinations, are the global vaccine donations being met? And what’s going on with our own vaccine supply – is it going to waste? editor and invited experts Lara Spirit Reporter Branko Brkic Editor in Chief, Daily Maverick, South Africa Caroline Lucas MP Brighton (Green) Joe Miller Frankfurt Correspondent at the Financial Times Roger Dennis Foresight and Strategy Consultant, Arms Race supporter

thinkin

Covid by Numbers, with David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

This is a digital-only ThinkIn. David Spiegelhalter has been described as a “superstar statistician” and as “Britain’s statistical national treasure”. He joins Tortoise, alongside fellow statistician and co-author Anthony Masters, for a ThinkIn based around their new book Covid by Numbers. Together, they will debunk our longstanding Covid misconceptions and address major outstanding questions about how the pandemic has played out. Why have some countries been hit harder? What would have happened if the UK had locked down earlier? And how does the vaccine really impact transmission? You can order David and Anthony’s book here. editor and invited experts Lara Spirit Reporter Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book, The Art of Statistics, has been published in 11 languages. Knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, he was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017-2018), and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020

thinkin

Post-pandemic business travel: is the end really nigh?

“China has just announced a major nation-wide easing of its zero Covid policy, a week after protests against the controls spread across the country.”BBC News In early December, after three years of trying to eliminate Covid altogether, Chinese officials announced they were dropping the country’s “zero Covid” policy.  For millions of people, life changed overnight. They were allowed to mix more freely, they were no longer forced to quarantine in government facilities if they had mild Covid symptoms and testing for entry into most public spaces was scrapped. But the easing of these strict policies quickly led to a surge in cases across China. “Beijing is facing its worst Covid outbreak after the government eased strict containment measures nearly two weeks ago.”CNN “The chief of the World Health Organisation says he’s very concerned about the increase in cases of Covid-19 in China.”BBC News Pictures and videos of Chinese hospitals began circulating on social media, showing patients in corridors and makeshift wards. Morgues quickly began to fill up, with families waiting for hours, often overnight, to secure a slot for cremating their dead loved ones.  Pharmacies have largely run out of cold and flu drugs, Ibuprofen tablets have quadrupled in price, and a limit has been put on the number of pills each customer can buy. But despite all of this, since lifting its zero-Covid policy, the Chinese government’s official death toll has barely risen, which has made other countries – and the World Health Organisation – suspicious. “It’s a really interesting and significant statement that we’re getting from the WHO. They’re calling on China to share more data about Covid-19 and they’re also warning that China is under representing the true toll of its runaway Covid-19 outbreak.”CNN So what’s really going on? *** China has changed how it counts Covid cases and deaths. Covid deaths are only counted if they’re caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure. Deaths from other complications caused by Covid such as blood clots, kidney failure and heart attacks aren’t included.  And it’s not just the official death toll that’s suspect, it’s the number of cases too. “So we think Covid is spreading more rapidly than those official numbers suggest. Up to two million cases a day, and unfortunately up to around 15,000 deaths a day.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This is Dr. Louise Blair, head of vaccines and epidemiology at Airfinity. “Airfinity is a life science data analytics company so we gather all data on different infectious diseases from lots of different sources to try and make sense of what’s really happening, with an infectious disease in a region or a country.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity Their modelling, which is just a forecast, suggests that China’s latest Covid surge hasn’t peaked yet, meaning the daily death rate is likely to keep rising. If the forecast is right, the figures are startling – there are currently 15,000 deaths per day, which already means more than 190,000 deaths across China since December. Put that alongside China’s official death toll – which claims  just over 5,200 people have died in the past three years of the pandemic. “Because we’ve done it on a province by province basis… we’re expecting two peaks… in some provinces cases started growing a little bit earlier and therefore will peak earlier. Beijing currently going a, a really steep rising in cases, whereas more rural areas and provinces, um, are maybe yet to see that.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity China’s first peak is expected to be around 3.7 million cases a day in mid-January, with the second in early March at 4.2 million a day. *** Airfinity’s estimated daily death toll is so high because the Chinese population has low natural immunity despite having high vaccination rates – partly that’s because the government chose to only use vaccines that had been developed by China itself. “They have relied on more traditional vaccine technologies, which have been shown for these Covid vaccines not to be as effective as mRNA.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity All of this means other countries are now placing travel restrictions on people coming from China. “The British government announced that all passengers travelling to England from mainland China will be required to produce a negative Covid test before boarding their flight..”BBC News And Dr. Louise Blair says that although infections in China are expected to peak in early Spring, Covid isn’t going anywhere. “It is likely that once this is over, they will continue to see waves just like we’re seeing in other countries. It’s how countries continue to manage ongoing Covid. For example, some countries are still seeing a significant impact. Japan has recorded its highest number of deaths in a single month in December, and it’s how countries respond via boosters, via treatments, and how they can manage that situation… going forward… that will be important going into the future.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This episode was written and mixed by Imy Harper.

thinkin

Covid and obesity: can we stop eating ourselves to death?

Public Health England data shows the risk of death from Covid-19 increased by 90% in people with a BMI (Body Mass Index) over 40, regardless of age. In lockdown, many of us have understandably turned to food for comfort – and it shows. The Department of Health and Social Care for England’s new obesity strategy outlines seven key measures to encourage us all to slim down – including more weight management services on the NHS, more calorie labelling and restrictions on the promotion of unhealthy foods on TV and in shops. But does this go far enough? Does the government’s new anti-obesity rhetoric whiff of fat-shaming and the nanny state? Given some campaigners argue that BMI is a useless and outdates measure of health and fitness anyway, is ‘getting tough on obesity’ just another way of avoiding tackling the root cause of people’s ill-health, namely social inequality? Is it time for a national food strategy, incorporating food-specific taxes to reinvest in education and improved access to nutrition? What, realistically, can or should be done to stop us eating ourselves to death?

thinkin

Niall Ferguson on DOOM: the politics of catastrophe

“China has just announced a major nation-wide easing of its zero Covid policy, a week after protests against the controls spread across the country.”BBC News In early December, after three years of trying to eliminate Covid altogether, Chinese officials announced they were dropping the country’s “zero Covid” policy.  For millions of people, life changed overnight. They were allowed to mix more freely, they were no longer forced to quarantine in government facilities if they had mild Covid symptoms and testing for entry into most public spaces was scrapped. But the easing of these strict policies quickly led to a surge in cases across China. “Beijing is facing its worst Covid outbreak after the government eased strict containment measures nearly two weeks ago.”CNN “The chief of the World Health Organisation says he’s very concerned about the increase in cases of Covid-19 in China.”BBC News Pictures and videos of Chinese hospitals began circulating on social media, showing patients in corridors and makeshift wards. Morgues quickly began to fill up, with families waiting for hours, often overnight, to secure a slot for cremating their dead loved ones.  Pharmacies have largely run out of cold and flu drugs, Ibuprofen tablets have quadrupled in price, and a limit has been put on the number of pills each customer can buy. But despite all of this, since lifting its zero-Covid policy, the Chinese government’s official death toll has barely risen, which has made other countries – and the World Health Organisation – suspicious. “It’s a really interesting and significant statement that we’re getting from the WHO. They’re calling on China to share more data about Covid-19 and they’re also warning that China is under representing the true toll of its runaway Covid-19 outbreak.”CNN So what’s really going on? *** China has changed how it counts Covid cases and deaths. Covid deaths are only counted if they’re caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure. Deaths from other complications caused by Covid such as blood clots, kidney failure and heart attacks aren’t included.  And it’s not just the official death toll that’s suspect, it’s the number of cases too. “So we think Covid is spreading more rapidly than those official numbers suggest. Up to two million cases a day, and unfortunately up to around 15,000 deaths a day.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This is Dr. Louise Blair, head of vaccines and epidemiology at Airfinity. “Airfinity is a life science data analytics company so we gather all data on different infectious diseases from lots of different sources to try and make sense of what’s really happening, with an infectious disease in a region or a country.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity Their modelling, which is just a forecast, suggests that China’s latest Covid surge hasn’t peaked yet, meaning the daily death rate is likely to keep rising. If the forecast is right, the figures are startling – there are currently 15,000 deaths per day, which already means more than 190,000 deaths across China since December. Put that alongside China’s official death toll – which claims  just over 5,200 people have died in the past three years of the pandemic. “Because we’ve done it on a province by province basis… we’re expecting two peaks… in some provinces cases started growing a little bit earlier and therefore will peak earlier. Beijing currently going a, a really steep rising in cases, whereas more rural areas and provinces, um, are maybe yet to see that.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity China’s first peak is expected to be around 3.7 million cases a day in mid-January, with the second in early March at 4.2 million a day. *** Airfinity’s estimated daily death toll is so high because the Chinese population has low natural immunity despite having high vaccination rates – partly that’s because the government chose to only use vaccines that had been developed by China itself. “They have relied on more traditional vaccine technologies, which have been shown for these Covid vaccines not to be as effective as mRNA.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity All of this means other countries are now placing travel restrictions on people coming from China. “The British government announced that all passengers travelling to England from mainland China will be required to produce a negative Covid test before boarding their flight..”BBC News And Dr. Louise Blair says that although infections in China are expected to peak in early Spring, Covid isn’t going anywhere. “It is likely that once this is over, they will continue to see waves just like we’re seeing in other countries. It’s how countries continue to manage ongoing Covid. For example, some countries are still seeing a significant impact. Japan has recorded its highest number of deaths in a single month in December, and it’s how countries respond via boosters, via treatments, and how they can manage that situation… going forward… that will be important going into the future.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This episode was written and mixed by Imy Harper.

thinkin

Sensemaker Live: why did Covid kill so few people in China?

“China has just announced a major nation-wide easing of its zero Covid policy, a week after protests against the controls spread across the country.”BBC News In early December, after three years of trying to eliminate Covid altogether, Chinese officials announced they were dropping the country’s “zero Covid” policy.  For millions of people, life changed overnight. They were allowed to mix more freely, they were no longer forced to quarantine in government facilities if they had mild Covid symptoms and testing for entry into most public spaces was scrapped. But the easing of these strict policies quickly led to a surge in cases across China. “Beijing is facing its worst Covid outbreak after the government eased strict containment measures nearly two weeks ago.”CNN “The chief of the World Health Organisation says he’s very concerned about the increase in cases of Covid-19 in China.”BBC News Pictures and videos of Chinese hospitals began circulating on social media, showing patients in corridors and makeshift wards. Morgues quickly began to fill up, with families waiting for hours, often overnight, to secure a slot for cremating their dead loved ones.  Pharmacies have largely run out of cold and flu drugs, Ibuprofen tablets have quadrupled in price, and a limit has been put on the number of pills each customer can buy. But despite all of this, since lifting its zero-Covid policy, the Chinese government’s official death toll has barely risen, which has made other countries – and the World Health Organisation – suspicious. “It’s a really interesting and significant statement that we’re getting from the WHO. They’re calling on China to share more data about Covid-19 and they’re also warning that China is under representing the true toll of its runaway Covid-19 outbreak.”CNN So what’s really going on? *** China has changed how it counts Covid cases and deaths. Covid deaths are only counted if they’re caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure. Deaths from other complications caused by Covid such as blood clots, kidney failure and heart attacks aren’t included.  And it’s not just the official death toll that’s suspect, it’s the number of cases too. “So we think Covid is spreading more rapidly than those official numbers suggest. Up to two million cases a day, and unfortunately up to around 15,000 deaths a day.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This is Dr. Louise Blair, head of vaccines and epidemiology at Airfinity. “Airfinity is a life science data analytics company so we gather all data on different infectious diseases from lots of different sources to try and make sense of what’s really happening, with an infectious disease in a region or a country.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity Their modelling, which is just a forecast, suggests that China’s latest Covid surge hasn’t peaked yet, meaning the daily death rate is likely to keep rising. If the forecast is right, the figures are startling – there are currently 15,000 deaths per day, which already means more than 190,000 deaths across China since December. Put that alongside China’s official death toll – which claims  just over 5,200 people have died in the past three years of the pandemic. “Because we’ve done it on a province by province basis… we’re expecting two peaks… in some provinces cases started growing a little bit earlier and therefore will peak earlier. Beijing currently going a, a really steep rising in cases, whereas more rural areas and provinces, um, are maybe yet to see that.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity China’s first peak is expected to be around 3.7 million cases a day in mid-January, with the second in early March at 4.2 million a day. *** Airfinity’s estimated daily death toll is so high because the Chinese population has low natural immunity despite having high vaccination rates – partly that’s because the government chose to only use vaccines that had been developed by China itself. “They have relied on more traditional vaccine technologies, which have been shown for these Covid vaccines not to be as effective as mRNA.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity All of this means other countries are now placing travel restrictions on people coming from China. “The British government announced that all passengers travelling to England from mainland China will be required to produce a negative Covid test before boarding their flight..”BBC News And Dr. Louise Blair says that although infections in China are expected to peak in early Spring, Covid isn’t going anywhere. “It is likely that once this is over, they will continue to see waves just like we’re seeing in other countries. It’s how countries continue to manage ongoing Covid. For example, some countries are still seeing a significant impact. Japan has recorded its highest number of deaths in a single month in December, and it’s how countries respond via boosters, via treatments, and how they can manage that situation… going forward… that will be important going into the future.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This episode was written and mixed by Imy Harper.

thinkin

Covid and obesity: can we stop eating ourselves to death?

“China has just announced a major nation-wide easing of its zero Covid policy, a week after protests against the controls spread across the country.”BBC News In early December, after three years of trying to eliminate Covid altogether, Chinese officials announced they were dropping the country’s “zero Covid” policy.  For millions of people, life changed overnight. They were allowed to mix more freely, they were no longer forced to quarantine in government facilities if they had mild Covid symptoms and testing for entry into most public spaces was scrapped. But the easing of these strict policies quickly led to a surge in cases across China. “Beijing is facing its worst Covid outbreak after the government eased strict containment measures nearly two weeks ago.”CNN “The chief of the World Health Organisation says he’s very concerned about the increase in cases of Covid-19 in China.”BBC News Pictures and videos of Chinese hospitals began circulating on social media, showing patients in corridors and makeshift wards. Morgues quickly began to fill up, with families waiting for hours, often overnight, to secure a slot for cremating their dead loved ones.  Pharmacies have largely run out of cold and flu drugs, Ibuprofen tablets have quadrupled in price, and a limit has been put on the number of pills each customer can buy. But despite all of this, since lifting its zero-Covid policy, the Chinese government’s official death toll has barely risen, which has made other countries – and the World Health Organisation – suspicious. “It’s a really interesting and significant statement that we’re getting from the WHO. They’re calling on China to share more data about Covid-19 and they’re also warning that China is under representing the true toll of its runaway Covid-19 outbreak.”CNN So what’s really going on? *** China has changed how it counts Covid cases and deaths. Covid deaths are only counted if they’re caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure. Deaths from other complications caused by Covid such as blood clots, kidney failure and heart attacks aren’t included.  And it’s not just the official death toll that’s suspect, it’s the number of cases too. “So we think Covid is spreading more rapidly than those official numbers suggest. Up to two million cases a day, and unfortunately up to around 15,000 deaths a day.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This is Dr. Louise Blair, head of vaccines and epidemiology at Airfinity. “Airfinity is a life science data analytics company so we gather all data on different infectious diseases from lots of different sources to try and make sense of what’s really happening, with an infectious disease in a region or a country.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity Their modelling, which is just a forecast, suggests that China’s latest Covid surge hasn’t peaked yet, meaning the daily death rate is likely to keep rising. If the forecast is right, the figures are startling – there are currently 15,000 deaths per day, which already means more than 190,000 deaths across China since December. Put that alongside China’s official death toll – which claims  just over 5,200 people have died in the past three years of the pandemic. “Because we’ve done it on a province by province basis… we’re expecting two peaks… in some provinces cases started growing a little bit earlier and therefore will peak earlier. Beijing currently going a, a really steep rising in cases, whereas more rural areas and provinces, um, are maybe yet to see that.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity China’s first peak is expected to be around 3.7 million cases a day in mid-January, with the second in early March at 4.2 million a day. *** Airfinity’s estimated daily death toll is so high because the Chinese population has low natural immunity despite having high vaccination rates – partly that’s because the government chose to only use vaccines that had been developed by China itself. “They have relied on more traditional vaccine technologies, which have been shown for these Covid vaccines not to be as effective as mRNA.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity All of this means other countries are now placing travel restrictions on people coming from China. “The British government announced that all passengers travelling to England from mainland China will be required to produce a negative Covid test before boarding their flight..”BBC News And Dr. Louise Blair says that although infections in China are expected to peak in early Spring, Covid isn’t going anywhere. “It is likely that once this is over, they will continue to see waves just like we’re seeing in other countries. It’s how countries continue to manage ongoing Covid. For example, some countries are still seeing a significant impact. Japan has recorded its highest number of deaths in a single month in December, and it’s how countries respond via boosters, via treatments, and how they can manage that situation… going forward… that will be important going into the future.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This episode was written and mixed by Imy Harper.

thinkin

Back to reality: how will going back to work work?

“China has just announced a major nation-wide easing of its zero Covid policy, a week after protests against the controls spread across the country.”BBC News In early December, after three years of trying to eliminate Covid altogether, Chinese officials announced they were dropping the country’s “zero Covid” policy.  For millions of people, life changed overnight. They were allowed to mix more freely, they were no longer forced to quarantine in government facilities if they had mild Covid symptoms and testing for entry into most public spaces was scrapped. But the easing of these strict policies quickly led to a surge in cases across China. “Beijing is facing its worst Covid outbreak after the government eased strict containment measures nearly two weeks ago.”CNN “The chief of the World Health Organisation says he’s very concerned about the increase in cases of Covid-19 in China.”BBC News Pictures and videos of Chinese hospitals began circulating on social media, showing patients in corridors and makeshift wards. Morgues quickly began to fill up, with families waiting for hours, often overnight, to secure a slot for cremating their dead loved ones.  Pharmacies have largely run out of cold and flu drugs, Ibuprofen tablets have quadrupled in price, and a limit has been put on the number of pills each customer can buy. But despite all of this, since lifting its zero-Covid policy, the Chinese government’s official death toll has barely risen, which has made other countries – and the World Health Organisation – suspicious. “It’s a really interesting and significant statement that we’re getting from the WHO. They’re calling on China to share more data about Covid-19 and they’re also warning that China is under representing the true toll of its runaway Covid-19 outbreak.”CNN So what’s really going on? *** China has changed how it counts Covid cases and deaths. Covid deaths are only counted if they’re caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure. Deaths from other complications caused by Covid such as blood clots, kidney failure and heart attacks aren’t included.  And it’s not just the official death toll that’s suspect, it’s the number of cases too. “So we think Covid is spreading more rapidly than those official numbers suggest. Up to two million cases a day, and unfortunately up to around 15,000 deaths a day.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This is Dr. Louise Blair, head of vaccines and epidemiology at Airfinity. “Airfinity is a life science data analytics company so we gather all data on different infectious diseases from lots of different sources to try and make sense of what’s really happening, with an infectious disease in a region or a country.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity Their modelling, which is just a forecast, suggests that China’s latest Covid surge hasn’t peaked yet, meaning the daily death rate is likely to keep rising. If the forecast is right, the figures are startling – there are currently 15,000 deaths per day, which already means more than 190,000 deaths across China since December. Put that alongside China’s official death toll – which claims  just over 5,200 people have died in the past three years of the pandemic. “Because we’ve done it on a province by province basis… we’re expecting two peaks… in some provinces cases started growing a little bit earlier and therefore will peak earlier. Beijing currently going a, a really steep rising in cases, whereas more rural areas and provinces, um, are maybe yet to see that.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity China’s first peak is expected to be around 3.7 million cases a day in mid-January, with the second in early March at 4.2 million a day. *** Airfinity’s estimated daily death toll is so high because the Chinese population has low natural immunity despite having high vaccination rates – partly that’s because the government chose to only use vaccines that had been developed by China itself. “They have relied on more traditional vaccine technologies, which have been shown for these Covid vaccines not to be as effective as mRNA.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity All of this means other countries are now placing travel restrictions on people coming from China. “The British government announced that all passengers travelling to England from mainland China will be required to produce a negative Covid test before boarding their flight..”BBC News And Dr. Louise Blair says that although infections in China are expected to peak in early Spring, Covid isn’t going anywhere. “It is likely that once this is over, they will continue to see waves just like we’re seeing in other countries. It’s how countries continue to manage ongoing Covid. For example, some countries are still seeing a significant impact. Japan has recorded its highest number of deaths in a single month in December, and it’s how countries respond via boosters, via treatments, and how they can manage that situation… going forward… that will be important going into the future.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This episode was written and mixed by Imy Harper.

thinkin

Whitty, Vallance and SAGE: have the scientists failed Britain?

“China has just announced a major nation-wide easing of its zero Covid policy, a week after protests against the controls spread across the country.”BBC News In early December, after three years of trying to eliminate Covid altogether, Chinese officials announced they were dropping the country’s “zero Covid” policy.  For millions of people, life changed overnight. They were allowed to mix more freely, they were no longer forced to quarantine in government facilities if they had mild Covid symptoms and testing for entry into most public spaces was scrapped. But the easing of these strict policies quickly led to a surge in cases across China. “Beijing is facing its worst Covid outbreak after the government eased strict containment measures nearly two weeks ago.”CNN “The chief of the World Health Organisation says he’s very concerned about the increase in cases of Covid-19 in China.”BBC News Pictures and videos of Chinese hospitals began circulating on social media, showing patients in corridors and makeshift wards. Morgues quickly began to fill up, with families waiting for hours, often overnight, to secure a slot for cremating their dead loved ones.  Pharmacies have largely run out of cold and flu drugs, Ibuprofen tablets have quadrupled in price, and a limit has been put on the number of pills each customer can buy. But despite all of this, since lifting its zero-Covid policy, the Chinese government’s official death toll has barely risen, which has made other countries – and the World Health Organisation – suspicious. “It’s a really interesting and significant statement that we’re getting from the WHO. They’re calling on China to share more data about Covid-19 and they’re also warning that China is under representing the true toll of its runaway Covid-19 outbreak.”CNN So what’s really going on? *** China has changed how it counts Covid cases and deaths. Covid deaths are only counted if they’re caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure. Deaths from other complications caused by Covid such as blood clots, kidney failure and heart attacks aren’t included.  And it’s not just the official death toll that’s suspect, it’s the number of cases too. “So we think Covid is spreading more rapidly than those official numbers suggest. Up to two million cases a day, and unfortunately up to around 15,000 deaths a day.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This is Dr. Louise Blair, head of vaccines and epidemiology at Airfinity. “Airfinity is a life science data analytics company so we gather all data on different infectious diseases from lots of different sources to try and make sense of what’s really happening, with an infectious disease in a region or a country.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity Their modelling, which is just a forecast, suggests that China’s latest Covid surge hasn’t peaked yet, meaning the daily death rate is likely to keep rising. If the forecast is right, the figures are startling – there are currently 15,000 deaths per day, which already means more than 190,000 deaths across China since December. Put that alongside China’s official death toll – which claims  just over 5,200 people have died in the past three years of the pandemic. “Because we’ve done it on a province by province basis… we’re expecting two peaks… in some provinces cases started growing a little bit earlier and therefore will peak earlier. Beijing currently going a, a really steep rising in cases, whereas more rural areas and provinces, um, are maybe yet to see that.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity China’s first peak is expected to be around 3.7 million cases a day in mid-January, with the second in early March at 4.2 million a day. *** Airfinity’s estimated daily death toll is so high because the Chinese population has low natural immunity despite having high vaccination rates – partly that’s because the government chose to only use vaccines that had been developed by China itself. “They have relied on more traditional vaccine technologies, which have been shown for these Covid vaccines not to be as effective as mRNA.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity All of this means other countries are now placing travel restrictions on people coming from China. “The British government announced that all passengers travelling to England from mainland China will be required to produce a negative Covid test before boarding their flight..”BBC News And Dr. Louise Blair says that although infections in China are expected to peak in early Spring, Covid isn’t going anywhere. “It is likely that once this is over, they will continue to see waves just like we’re seeing in other countries. It’s how countries continue to manage ongoing Covid. For example, some countries are still seeing a significant impact. Japan has recorded its highest number of deaths in a single month in December, and it’s how countries respond via boosters, via treatments, and how they can manage that situation… going forward… that will be important going into the future.”Dr. Louise Blair, Head of Vaccines and Epidemiology, Airfinity This episode was written and mixed by Imy Harper.